The US inflation rate reached it top at 9.1% in July 2022 and started to go down continuously. The latest inflation rate in June is 2.7%.
From the table in previous page, we can see that the annual average rate of 2024 is 2.9%. Now is under the average rate of last year, but still above the standard rate of 2.0%. Actually, from 2.0% to 2.5% can be treated as a grace period, that is getting ready to meet the target of 2.0%.
By the end of 2024, market expected the interest rate of 2025 will be cut twice. It is no wrong when the inflation rate in growing down and the Fed cut the interest rate even not reach the target of 2.0%. It should be done gradually.
However, the tariff war of Donald Trump surely would push up inflation. But the actual effect cannot come out so soon, it may be the end of this year. For most important partners just finished agreement in July, and the largest trading partner which is China is still under negotiation. So it is hard to see the effect now and hard to take any action now.