After talking about the Money Triangle of NVDA, OpenAI and ORCL, we turn to another page concerning the battle between Huawei and NVDA. But not yet finished, please refer to the last item of North, East, West, South is News, we still have another story on TSM, and not yet finished, next week, we will have ……
The AI waves are brilliant and splendid. It will not end so soon.
Its no doubt that Huawei is chasing near NVDA but not chasing up. The gap is still quite large. How large it is, will be explicit in the following issues. Mind that the US sanction is not so complete, because chips still can be re-exported through the third, fourth or fifth…… countries to China and Russia. That’s why they need to install GPS system on export of chips. The bill not yet passed, but actually carrying on.
If the bill is passed, what would happen? China still can establish data center overseas such as in Singapore or elsewhere, and that why the bill is still pending now.
However, Jensen Huang told Bloomberg that Huawei is really a threat to NVDA, and is chasing quite nearby. Why he says so, simply because he wanted to have more help and fund from White House. We can see the Defense Department, every time they say their enemy is quite strong or weapons are chasing quite near US. The aim is to get more funds. It became an unwritten law indeed.
But as the case develops Huawei would develop more chips for domestic usage, and overseas buyers of course still stick to NVDA. If you understand the sales of Chinese commercial plane C919, you will know more. Such as in case of software, people would like to use Microsoft Windows, they can use Chinese domestic version of Windows, but hard to merge into international style. Microsoft has worldwide market and costumers, therefore their development and fund can support them for future and deeper research.
In case of commercial sales, of course Huawei can get more market share for they have a lot of local fans which will only buy Huawei. Would it affect the profit margin of NVDA? It depends on the development of AI. The demand of AI is so great, that means NVDA can also double its business shortly. You can see that Jensen Huang is always saying that the demand will be double and double year by year. Their infinite triangle will push ORCL or OpenAI into Top 10 market capitalization soon.
Being an investor, we have to know what is in the competition and how it develops. But one more thing we have to prepare well, when AI continues to develop, a lot of jobs will be replaced by humanoid robots or capable AI users. This is more important.
So I asked Grok and Copilot to give forecast on NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite for the next 5 years. Mind that there will be an AI bloom in 2029 and 2030. Why? Because the landing on Mars will be either in 2030 or 2029. This time, would not be just a 3-year project of Moon Landing which ended in 1972. Both US and China already had a 20-year project on the Mars. So please prepare well before it is too late.