Even Elon Musk is a superman, but he has already faced a lot of failures, especially in Full Self Driving (FSD). One of his famous forecasts on FSD in 2017 is that next year can have a coast-to-coast driving, that is either from east coast to west coast or vice versa. But he himself admitted he is very often too optimistic. Please refer the table on page 7 of his forecasts on FSD by Wikipedia, half a hundred of his wishes on FSD could not come true. That is why during the fall of TSLA since Dec 2024, I told investor not to buy the stocks for he wished unsupervised FSD could come out in Jun 2025, but failed.
Now, situation has been changed, the progress is on the track gradually. Version 14 will come out this week, and 14.1 two weeks later and 14.2 two more weeks. Version 15 will be by the end of this year. Unsupervised FSD will be ready for wide commercial usage in mid-2026. May be a little later, anyway would be too long. For it aims at a safety of 10 times better than human drivers. Actually, limited commercial use is now in operation.
Henceforward, there will be no more drunken drivers, drug drivers, over-working drivers or emotional drivers when FSD occupies the market. Even a husband quarrels with his wife, the FSD still can function well and the car would not be affected. People need not complain young drivers which has insufficient experience, policemen need not come out to catch drunken drivers on Christmas eve.
However, it will be a doomsday to professional drivers, driving instructors and driving schools. The final countdown has already started.
For general citizens, what they concern is safety, including passengers on the car and pedestrians on the road. There is an accident of Xiaomi Su7 on March 29, 2025. The accident caused fire and 3 college students were burnt to death inside the car. People worried if there is a fire, the electricity should be power off, how can they open the door for escape. Tesla said all their e-cars have mechanical design and can easily survive when power off because of fire. Xiaomi also said they have such devise, but those students still burnt to death and thus needs to be investigated. Basically, Xiaomi is famous for mobile and not e-car.
Baidu is having their auto driving test in Hong Kong now. For in mainland China, their traffic is keeping right, but Hong Kong is an island economy, traffic keeping left. They are aiming at the market of Japan, Singapore, Australia and UK, that is island economy. So, the battle of FSD has already started, and competitors not only limited to US market, but overseas market also.
By 2040, 97% of traditional human drivers will be eliminated. So, for the future of TSLA, focus should not be limited to the quantity of production, but will shift to FSD and Optimus humanoid robots also. Don’t forget the X.AI also, it is a great inspiration to the fans of Elon Musk and he himself also. The battlefield will not limit to recent years but will be extend to more than the Pay and Performance Scheme of 10 years.
Meanwhile, do you know another optimistic wish of Elon Musk? He wishes to migrate one million people to the Mars before 2054. Do you think its too optimistic? Oh my God! Every of his wishes would have some effect on the price of TSLA or even the US stock market.