(36) Blackwell & NVDA - iHandbook
(36)  Blackwell & NVDA

(36) Blackwell & NVDA

Blackwell suddenly is very famous and popular again. Because Trump met with the press on Air Force One and said he didn’t discuss approving sales of Nvidia Corp’s Blackwell chips to China. From the attached picture you can see it is Trump walked to the press quarter, but just standing at the door and talked shortly on this matter. There is no official press meeting, just talk something by the door as if encountering the press in lift lobby so would not like to talk so long even the flight is a trans-Pacific flight. Anyway, the Asian trip made him in different time zone and has to adopt to the Washington zone on arrival.

 

For G2 meeting, Trump described if full mark is 10 he would give 12 marks. For sensitive questions are put aside, like Taiwan and South Sea, and would not push China to stop buying Russian petroleum. China really took one big step backward. That is release the control of rare earth for one year. This point is true, for they found Trump is uniting with western countries seriously and the effect will be greater than expectation. Therefore China would use another policy, that is lower the price of rare earth so as to fight with competitors. But control of Fentanyl is really a domestic affair of China, it is quite hard for them to check the compoments distribution. Above all, it needs time to prove the effect, such as the pirate CD had been existed for decades and is now still a problem.

 

What investors care about is the chips. Blackwell is really at the level of revolutionary. China has changed their policy. H20 had not been sold to China, but the capitalization of NVDA still breaks 5 Trillion and is believed to touch 6 and 7 Trillion faster than anyone in the world. NVDA even special designed the H20 for China, which is of limited power, but still greatly above the function of Chinese products. China of course knows it. If they use other domestic chips, it is of low end, but they are willing to support the local industry. So after a period, local manufacturers can earn money from domestic market and have fund for research. So in the long run, they can chase up. That is their policy.

 

Please refer to The Express of 20250822, 20250903, 20250908, 20250924, 20250926 for NVDA.

 

Now, the world is in AI revolution, and if it is blocked in the first year, the computing power will be doubled every year and even harder to chase. Small investors are in FOMO, Fear of Missing Out and always chase high. Even in long term we can expect it will have appropriate rise, but is it too risky to buy at record high. Some people even say there is no wrong in buying, just see when will you sell out. Buying is easy, but selling out even harder. So must set a target for selling, at least partial selling or else do not touch the stocks, like Landing on Mars is an epoch-making time.

 

There are 2 stocks which can use your monthly income to buy no neglecting the price level which are NVDA and TSLA. But must do it continually without breaking. Just treat it as a saving account, but cannot apply to other stocks. For TSLA, some people afraid the Pay and Performance Scheme of Elon Musk may not be passed, so better try it after the Board Meeting of next week. So, for those that do not have sufficient fund, can try alternatively, one month for NVDA and another month for TSLA, when one is too high just shift to other. The basic theory is Bull long and Bear short, at most of the time, US market is running above the 250-SMA, so worthy of treat it as a saving account.

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