Jim Rogers, Bank of America, and the June Warning
Jim Rogers, who correctly called the 1987 crash, the 2000 dot-com bubble, and the 2008 subprime crisis, has sounded the alarm again. He named two triggers for a new global financial crisis: the AI bubble and the continued rise in global debt. He believes the next crisis could exceed the scale of any previous one.
Bank of America strategists are more specific on timing. Due to investor influx into stocks and rising inflation risks, they expect profit-taking in early June. The catalysts they cited: the upcoming OPEC meeting, the World Cup opening ceremony, the G7 summit, and Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting. June has too many event risks clustered together for the market to ignore.
Trump confirmed that interest rate cuts are unlikely in the short term unless the Iran war ends. That removes one of the remaining bullish catalysts for rate-sensitive sectors.
The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning
The US 30-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since October 2023. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is approaching 2.5% again, the threshold where historically S&P 500 profit-taking accelerates, as shown in Bank of America’s own chart.
When long-term interest rates rise on inflation fears while the Fed is frozen, the squeeze comes from both sides. Equity valuations compress. Bond alternatives become more attractive. The market has ignored this signal for weeks. June may be where it can no longer do so.
Iran: No Direct Talks, No Hormuz Progress
Iran has responded to the latest US proposal through Pakistan, the middleman. Iranian media described Washington’s demands as excessive. There is no face-to-face US-Iran negotiation. Until there is, Hormuz remains closed and oil stays elevated.
Trump is again evaluating whether to restart bombardment. Time magazine noted that the G2 Beijing meeting highlights a shift of power from the United States to China. Military stocks carry event risk from multiple directions: Taiwan arms sales uncertainty, Iran war stalemate, and Trump’s view that the 1982 Congressional guarantees to Taiwan are outdated. Congress has not passed any new legislation to change that law. One president cannot unilaterally override it. But the uncertainty alone is enough to keep military stocks unpredictable.
Two ETFs for the Next Wave: ARKX and ROBO
With the main indexes at record highs and single-stock risk elevated, two ETFs offer exposure to the next structural trends without the concentration risk.
ARKX is Cathie Wood’s ARK Space and Defense Innovation ETF, currently at $34.08. With SpaceX IPO scheduled for June 12 on NASDAQ under ticker SPCX, the space sector is entering a new phase of public market attention. ARKX provides a basket of space-related holdings rather than a single-stock bet at IPO price. Buffett has stepped back. Cathie Wood is the next major name in active stock selection.
ROBO is the Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF, currently at $84.95. The Ukraine war changed how military planners think about conflict. Russia began with 60-mile truck convoys in the style of World War II. Both sides have shifted to kamikaze drones and four-axis autonomous machines. Ukraine has reclaimed approximately 100 square kilometres using drone-led tactics. The signal is clear: the war of tomorrow is a war of robots. That applies to robotaxis, autonomous driving, and eventual space conflict. Today’s price will look low in five years and extremely low in a generation.
The Thin Ice Signal
Both S&P and DJIA remain supported by the Ichimoku Cloud. S&P’s Bollinger Bands are significantly wider and stronger than DJIA’s, confirming S&P leads this rally. Fear and Greed sits at 63, easing from 65 one week ago.
The market has been rising for eight consecutive weeks. Most participants are now waiting for a healthy adjustment. If it comes, Daniel Yue’s read is that it should be treated as good news: digestion, rotation, and then a new wave up. The Year of Crimson Horse and Red Goat puts the seasonal peak around Summer Solstice. The whole summer remains promising on that framework.
The 10-SMA is the line to watch for S&P and NASDAQ. A close below it signals real adjustment has begun. The 20-SMA is the equivalent line for DJIA.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Avoid military stocks — Iran war stalemate, Taiwan arms ambiguity, and Trump’s threat to restart bombardment create event risk in both directions with no clear catalyst for resolution
- ARKX for space exposure — SpaceX IPO on June 12 will lift the entire sector; a basket ETF removes single-stock IPO risk while capturing the trend
- ROBO for robotics exposure — drones and autonomous machines are the infrastructure of future warfare and daily life; current price will look cheap within a decade
- Watch June event cluster — OPEC meeting, G7 summit, World Cup, Warsh’s first Fed meeting are all potential profit-taking triggers; Bank of America has flagged early June as the risk window
- 10-SMA is the line — S&P and NASDAQ above it means trend is intact; a close below is the adjustment signal; do not react to a single down day before that line breaks
Key Takeaway: Jim Rogers warns of an AI bubble, Bank of America flags June as the profit-taking window, bond yields are at multi-year highs, and the market is stepping on thin ice: ARKX and ROBO are the two ETFs worth watching while the indexes digest.
Related reading: ARKX Space Economy · ROBO and AI Wave · Interest Rate Watch · 250-SMA and 10-SMA Guide · Various ETFs
Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.