Donald Trump postponed the strikes to the power plants of Iran just shortly before the expiration of an ultimatum of 48 hours. Trump haters would say TACO, he is chicken out again. Trump lovers would say the ultimatum is an art of negotiation. Target of escalation is to de-escalate. Iran said they had driven out the invaders and held the throat of Hormuz Strait, Israel said their decapitation was quite successful, that now all Iranian officials speak with their head totally bonded up, less the AI could find out who they are. The US of course said they destroyed over 90% of the Iranian military power that it may take 10 years or more to restore.
However, what the writer said is to start buying when the Fear & Greed Index is at 15 points. For in 2022, even the closing price was 15, but intraday low was 12. On April 7 last year, the closing was 7 but intraday low was 3. Anyway, Warren Buffet and George Soros said several times that they do not try to catch the top or bottom of the market, it’s nothing but gambling. Starting your first buying at 15 is no mistake, no matter if the talk is successful or not.
All the way, this report has focused on WTI rather than Brent Oil, for WTI is what the US is using now and affects their inflation most and Brent Oil is used in Europe. The WTI really shuttles up and down the watershed of $100.The NASDAQ index is also curving downward and each low is lower than previous. But 3 major indexes are still above the 250-SMA, it is another indicator showing that the market is still in a bull market. No need to worry!
The AI including GPT and GROK already warned of those chasing high or energy stocks. It is a too risky to buy at this stage, but AI stocks are falling. However, I have already pointed out one star, that is PLTR, after the start of the Iranian War, all AI stocks dropped, and now PLTR is the highest after the start of the war. For it allocated the target and attack of drones one by one. There will be no duplication and no missing out. No matter for hardware (military sites) and software (military personnel).
Donald Trump can announce victory and withdraw at once, but when the Hormuz Strait is not freely open, he surely will lose in the midterm election. The UN has no ability to keep the Strait open and no ability to stop the war and no ability to carry on effective negotiation since the P5+1 talk of 2006. What will happen by the end of these ulti-ultimatum?
Counting the days of rising and falling, the US stock market is always rising days more than falling days. People hope the golden pit of April 7 last year will come again; everyone is waiting for another golden pit so it is hard to have a big slump. What investors can do is to improve their own luck in investment, to find a better time for buying. But no need to aim for the lowest day, if you can buy at the lowest month already very nice.
Whether Trump is chicken out or just an art of negotiation like the tariff war, no need to argue. Whether Trump is bending down upon opposition voices or accepting internal advice to be more considerate is another story. Investors should try to make more money outside the stock market so as to input more capital. Our training course of Financial Astrology & Chinese Geomancy is to help investors to use the cost of a coffee to aggregate more capital for investment in the market, but not in a single evening, it takes a period to make it true by patience.
Enter into our website ihandbook.org and scroll down to the bottom of the front page and fill in the contact form (question form) NOW. No need to think whether US is accelerating or stopping World War III, it’s an idea too far away from us. Try to improve your luck for investment is more practical.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.