Go ! Go ! Go ! Fasten seat belt, coaster roller goes!
Our long term readers should remember the warning of Fasten Seat Belt had given out in 2022, and should clearly remember what happened after. Under the executive orders of Donald Trump, all technical analysis are so helpless and weak. His power is so tremendous. When a large drop occurs in TSLA (page 10), NVDA (page 8) and TSM (page 10), what should we do? Some need to buy some need to observe further depends on the details of Tariff War.
NASDAQ goes horizontally since mid-November and the fast rising trend began to slow down (see page 7). S&P had made record high this year but not NASDAQ, which means IT stocks are not so strong. NASDAQ in symmetrical triangle means it is waiting for further news, S&P even lower but still near record high. Already said in the Financial Astrology on Jan 27th of The Express that a new heaven and earth will come for this new era. This Tariff War is global and will start this week, overwhelming the Congress Hearing of Powell on Tue and Wed.
Tariff War of Canada and Mexico held on, and only China goes. That means Chinese products might have to gone through ASEAN countries to have the last process like adding label or package, and chopped as made in Vietnam to avoid tariff. Therefore, tariff war may also levy to South East Asia, Five Small Tigers, India, Europe, South America, South Korea and Taiwan. Trump had said 98% of high end chips in US are made in Taiwan and this week may levy 100% tariff on chips. EU, South America and all others are on the way……etc
TSM is just a manufacturer of chips for their clients like APPL and NVDA, the clients design and they made it. The manufacturer would not sell chips to end users, but will transfer their cost to NVDA and APPL. Even India has a population of 1.4 Billion and China 1.3 Billion, but both of them cannot generate an enterprise like TSM to be on Top 10 of world capitalization. Taiwan only has 23 million people but irreplaceable after all. The whole world needs the chips of NVDA no matter for IT products or domestic products. The demand is still strong for no competitors can give threats to NVDA. But if the i-phone of APPL is too expensive, people may turn to Samsung or Huawei. Even 100% tariff is levied to Taiwan, the cost is still lower than that of Arizona plants. So if the drop comes because of tariff, buy TSM and NVDA, but not TSLA and APPL. Full Self Driving of TSLA will only come out in summer and not now, APPL and TSLA may become the victim of tariff war that China may have retaliation on these 2 giants.