On September 22 of The Express, talking about the curse of September, I not only pointed out this year is the exception, 3 major indexes would not fall as the past, but also broke record highs. The focus is that the hardest thing of analysis is to find out the exception. If you follow the continuous trend of rising and need not to forecast the top, for it is hard to guess the top but easy to follow the trend. So, September is the month of record high and not as the curse said will fall only. But on that day, I quoted the hymn that God hath not promised, skies always blue……
How about October? It is said as Uptober for crypto, but Bitcoin fell from high of $120,000 to $112,000, again it’s another exception.
Now the long-awaited adjustment came at last. Mind that this is peculiar of US stock market, bull long and bear short. That is the rise in the whole month is in short candlesticks, but the fall of a single day equals to the rise of the whole month. From the S&P chart of page 8, it showed the bottom of April 7 to the top of Oct 10. Don’t say tariff war has no effect now, it still can block the top of the market. It has risen for 29 weeks, so if there is a correction of 6-8 weeks, its quite normal. The greatest support should be at 6018 the year-line (250-SMA) and also the Fibonacci series. But practically, it should find its bottom at 6212 of August 1.
Remember the NASDAQ 100 components is a winner’s club. All earning stocks and rising stocks will be absorbed as members, and sluggish stocks will be kicked off. By the end of this year, they will renew the members. The 3 major indices are all like this. Don’t worry, such a system will make the index rise and the market will follow the index.
How to handle such a scene, I have already said that stocks purchased in the buying period from March to August should be lock up till 2030, the landing of Mars, the completion of Stargate project and also the Pay and Performance scheme of Elon Musk should be half done in 2030.
China chose this specific time to announce sanction obviously is because of the shutdown of US government, hoping they could not function easily in order to get better terms in negotiation. Trump first refused to turn up in the APEC and later said he would still go. Thus, made people afraid that he might insult Xi publicly as that of insulting Zelensky. Maybe or may not be! It is true that the problem could not be solved in a single evening and would carry on for a longer time. So, we should wait for the counter retaliation of China. Now is on the edge of total decoupling of China and US. When US totally banned the parts of Boeing planes, the reserve in China can only last for 3 to 6 months and after that all Boeing planes must be grounded. And if US banned China of using swift code, it will be disastrous not only in the field of finance, but also in international trading. And if US further banned the chips, all mobile and e-car of China will be affected.
Don’t worry, it is worse but not worst. November 5 is the beaver moon, the largest full moon of 2025, 7.9% larger and 16% brighter than an average Full Moon. The Geminids will peak on December 14, producing up to 150 meteors per hour. The waning crescent Moon (27% illuminated) won’t hinder the view.
We can buy at low of the dip, no matter it is golden pit or short bear market. People always said there would not be 2 golden pits in a year. In April, there is a golden pit, so after that, the market kept on a rising trend for half a year, for even the slightest drop would trigger buying orders to fill the falling potential golden pit.
Is this year an exception?
In the first half of 2025, market is governed by tariff war. Since the Liberation Day, the effect of tariff gradually diminishes. Now what we are facing is not just tariff war, it is the decoupling of US and China. What triggers US to join World War II. It is because US have sanction on Japan and they organized the Pearl Harbor attack of TORA! TORA! TORA! Now US has de facto sanction of chips by GPS, and triggered the decoupling of China and US.
Please wide open our eyes and see what will happen!