Juneteenth Day marks the end of the first half of the year, together with the end of the Iranian War and new Fed chair holds the first FOMC meeting, and the largest IPO ever in history of SPCX, we better have a half yearly review so as to plan for the rest of this year after the Summer Solstice of Jun 21.
Originally, most people had the target of this year 2026 aiming from 7500 to 7700 of S&P, which had been fulfilled in May. However, the target of the writer is 7900 but said hard to hit 8000. It is still carrying on without any changes while most people adjusted upward when reaching the initial targets. When and how were those targets made? Those should be annual targets and not half yearly targets. So, my annual target is still an annual target, no need to adjust for the time being!
After the golden pit of tariff war, the market began to recover and rocket up. By November 2025, gradually there was a noise challenging AI as a bubble. People comparing it with the Dot Com Bubble of the 1990s. The pros and cons argued a lot, but the optimistic side seemed to prevail. AI stocks were just a little over-estimated and not a bubble. This means retail buyers can continue to buy without worrying about a bubble economy. Market sentiments had a change, most individual investors suddenly found too many potential stocks needed to buy, but too little cash left in hand. This condition has lasted since Nov till now.
At the Harvest Moon of November 2025, two supermen brought about the changes, that is Elon Musk and Jensen Huang. Elon Musk had his 10-year pay and performance scheme with TSLA, and NVDA started to have good financial reports but price kept stagnant and started this trend so. What you can see is a curved top of NASDAQ and S&P, and once even curved down below the beginning point, but luckily no big black candlestick to ignite the fall. NVDA went horizontally for a long time and TSLA before reaching the previous top started to fall.
The war in Iran started the drop, both S&P and NASDAQ enlarged the small curved top to a larger curved top (page 8), but DJIA got support from traditional stocks and found support at the Harvest Moon of November and acted as safe haven and got harvest from another golden pit in March. Since the new golden pit of Mar 2026, the war effect is put aside and market concern back to inflation and interest rate.
The dot plot chart is the most commonly quoted tool for forecasting the Fed rate, but normally it is the most non-accurate tool. Even though they are compiled by decision makers of FOMC, they are not as accurate as the CME target rate probabilities for the latter are changing every hour and every minute and dot plot charts only release once a quarter. Some people say it is just like a blind man touching an elephant if you only refer to the current chart without comparison with the last quarter. That is why I always emphasize the importance of a market diary. If you know nothing concerning the last time, how can you know what changes occurring? Kevin Wash surely knows about this. He also observed this situation long ago. That’s why he wanted to dilute the effect of dot plot charts.
But one thing we cannot dilute, that is the economic projection. They have projected as in the first column of page 2, GDP will adjust down from 2.4% to 2.2%, unemployment will be down from 4.4% to 4.3%. People are worrying that AI will replace human jobs, and as a matter of fact, we can have news of laying off in large enterprises and are so horrible. Jensen Huang shouted in COMPUTEX no problem, AI can create more jobs. He is correct (at least for the time being)! Please wide open your eyes and see. However, one thing we also have to open our eyes wider and wider, that is PCE will increase from 2.7% to 3.6%. This will have an effect on the interest rate and not the dot plot chart.
Oil prices will go down after the war; everyone knows about it. But there is also a period of 60-day negotiation. DJIA and PLHX are on record high and S&P and NASDAQ will follow. What will the future market be? Will it continue to rise or turn down or go horizontally? Inflation is detrimental to the market, but the IPO of OpenAI and Anthropic are also beneficial to the market, which one will prevail?
Market still in a bullish trend, but for short term everything is Dusk in the Wind!
US Stock Express 20260622 Half yearly review Dusk in Wind
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.