Hormuz at 15 Ships Per Day: The Ceasefire That Changes Nothing Yet
The ceasefire is fragile and the numbers prove it. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day. The three bypass pipelines combined can handle only 7 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of 13 million barrels per day that no existing infrastructure can cover. With Iran capping daily passage at 15 vessels, the effective flow through the strait is a fraction of normal. As of today, 1,900 ships remain trapped inside the Gulf. Another 300 are waiting outside the strait. The majority of the global fleet has begun rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days per voyage.
As Daniel Yue noted on Day 1 of the Iranian war: when war breaks out, the first thing that dies is truth. There are now three competing versions of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal, with the US version differing from both the IRGC’s and the presidential house’s. The ceasefire is real enough for markets to price in, but not stable enough to stop watching by the hour. Investors do not need to judge which version is correct. They need to prepare for the roller coaster the peace talks will produce.
Iran Takes Bitcoin for Oil: The Most Significant Crypto Development of the Decade
Iran has announced a $1-per-barrel transit toll on all commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with payment required in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency. The explicit reason is to circumvent sanctions and dollar-based traceability. The US has agreed to the arrangement as part of the ceasefire terms.
Consider the implication. One dollar per barrel sounds modest, but it directly ties Bitcoin to the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, the passage through which 20% of global seaborne oil normally flows. This is not adoption by a tech startup. This is a sovereign nation embedding Bitcoin into the mechanics of global energy trade. If the mechanism holds or expands, it accelerates the de-dollarization narrative in the most concrete way possible and creates a structural, ongoing demand source for BTC that has no historical precedent.
Technically, IBIT is deeply oversold, far below the 250-SMA, and the 3-year chart shows it rarely sustains that depth for long. BITQ is positioning to break above all five major moving averages. FDIG offers diversified exposure to crypto infrastructure companies at a low 0.39% expense ratio. For investors concerned about index valuations, this is the crypto entry point the thesis has been waiting for.
Fed Watches PCE and Prepares for a Rate Decision Nobody Wants
The February PCE price index came in at 0.4% month-on-month, with core PCE also at 0.4%, both in line with estimates. On an annual basis, PCE inflation runs at 2.8% and core PCE at 3.0%, down slightly from 3.1% in January. The numbers are not alarming in isolation. The problem is the direction they are heading if the Iran war sustains energy prices.
A growing number of Fed officials now believe the conflict could push inflation materially higher, and the March FOMC minutes confirm that policymakers discussed the possibility of raising interest rates in response. That is a meaningful shift in tone. The framework of the last two years, where the Fed was looking for reasons to cut, is being replaced by one where it is looking for reasons not to raise. On a separate note, Intel’s multi-year agreement to supply Google with next-generation Xeon processors confirms that technology investment continues even as the macro backdrop deteriorates.
Fear & Greed at 35: The Window Is Narrowing, Not Closed
The Fear & Greed Index moved from 18 one week ago to 35 today, still Fear territory. One month ago it sat at 22. One year ago it was at 9. The recovery from extreme fear to fear in a single week reflects the market pricing in the ceasefire, but not pricing in resolution. The optimal buying tranches were at 15, 10, and 5. Those who followed that strategy are ahead. Those who waited should note that 35 remains historically a buying level, even if the best of the window has passed.
The 250-SMA on the S&P 500 remains the structural line to watch. WTI’s Ichimoku chart is still in a rising trend with no sign yet of turning down, meaning inflation pressure persists regardless of any ceasefire announcement. Bitcoin has fallen back to its 2024 support zone, a level that historically has functioned as a safe haven entry for equity investors looking for a different risk profile. Traditional Head and Shoulders analysis does not apply to crypto in the same way. The support zone holds a different meaning here.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Crypto as the key position — Iran’s Bitcoin toll policy creates structural BTC demand; IBIT and FDIG are the clearest plays; BITQ is setting up to break above all five moving averages
- Hormuz live tracker — 1,900 ships trapped, 15 per day passing, 13M bbl/day gap that pipelines cannot fill; follow the live tracker for more accurate signals than any news headline
- Fear & Greed at 35 — still fear territory; the optimal window was 15 to 10, but 35 remains a historically sound buying level for patient investors
- Interest rate risk — FOMC minutes signal a possible rate hike if the Iran war sustains energy inflation; review rate-sensitive positions accordingly
- 250-SMA on WTI and S&P — Ichimoku on WTI still rising; watch whether the S&P reclaims this level as the cleaner confirmation that the correction phase is ending
Key Takeaway: Iran has embedded Bitcoin into global oil trade at $1 per barrel through the Strait of Hormuz, with 1,900 ships still trapped and only 15 passing per day. The ceasefire bought time for markets. It may have permanently changed the role of crypto in global trade.
Related reading: Iran Crisis and the Market · Crypto and Bitcoin · Fear & Greed Index Strategy · Mind the Oil Futures
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.