The V-shape rebound of market has been cooled down since early May, and in early Jun already gone back to the level of Jan and Feb. Please refer to S&P on page 4. The simplest explanation is that market is waiting for a health adjustment but it never comes. This is the standard bull market of US stocks as in the previous 3 V-shape rebounds of 9/11 Terror Attack in 2001, Financial Tsunami in 2008, Pandemic in 2020. There are a lot of changing horse trading, not just profit taking but also new entries, such as selling of Warren Buffet’s BRKW and buying of Catherine Wood’s ARKW. It’s good symptom.
Traditionally, when war is going to break out, oil and gold will rise. But this time what can be seen is that no such a case, gold and oil even fell a little. Why? This is an exceptional case, at least up till now is. AI expected the price of oil will be double to $150 or even $200, but of course will fall down when ceasefire comes. People believe that military stocks like LMT, RTX and BA will rise sharply, but now is another story.
PLTR will rise, AMD will rise, AVGO will rise!
PLTR no need to say, if they can find out Bid Laden who just had 4 wives, it is too easy to find out Ali Hosseini Khamenei who has 17 wives and the youngest is just 9 years old.
AVGO is said to join the Magnificent Seven soon and become the Magnificent Eight. They are chasing closely after NVDA. The market share of AVGO is much great than AMD. But when you consult the charts on page 5, you can see AVGO had risen a lot and too high indeed, AMD is not just at the low, but going to break upward the 250-SMA. So promising! AVGO is too far up from the 250-SMA, and soon will be pulled back. We must use the 250-SMA like this. So when adjustment comes, buy back then it falls near the 250-SMA. TSM is roughly in the same case.
The economic projection on page 1 shows that Federal Reserve is still looking good upon the economy of US under the tariff war. In the era of Joe Biden, Trump 1.0 and Barrack Obama, all these indicators occupied most of the market comments, but now they are totally kicked off, instead what people mind most is the polices of King Donald, and remember to keep it up-date, up-hour, up-minute and up-second.