During the end of 2024, the writer predicted the market of this year will be between S&P 6,600 and 5,500. On March 13, it really reached 5504. Is this a medium stop or the bottom of the fall? Since the target is reached so early, within 2 months after Trump took office. It is very likely to be adjusted lower because the Liberation Day had not yet come.
The Ursa Minor pattern denotes a drop with two medium stops from record high of Feb 19th at 6147 of S&P. Now the 250-SMA has changed from going up to horizontally in S&P and the last closing price is just a little above the S&P. It denotes a horizontal platform is forming. For NASDAQ, the 250-SMA is still going up but the horizontal platform is developing under the 250-SMA. Therefore not firm enough to say the bottom has reached unless all 3 major indexes are prominently above the 250-SMA. We can only say the market is searching for the bottom and the middle line of the rectangular pattern is the 250-SMA before the Liberation Day. The actual effect has to be shown a period after that day.
Whether the recession will come is another problem, but the worry already existing. From experience of financial market, the worry is even more horrible than the actual fact. That is very likely the worry will bring down the market, when recession really comes, it is the bottom for no more bad news will come and only good news will come. The Ursa Minor Pattern denotes after the fall, a rectangular platform will develop for a period. The writer insisted that this buying time may last for a period of 6 months. That means buying can start on March but prepare well for another 5 buying afterwards so that investors can use 6 months’ salary for establishing long position for the bull market that is going to come.