Since 2022, US Joe Biden has imposed continuous legislation on sanction of chips to China, including allies in Europe and Asia, they also banned the export and related manufacturing machines to China. After the November presidential election, additionally he imposed another ban of export to 140 companies in China on Dec 3rd. While people are waiting to see whether he would have any other action, it come at length. Reliable sources disclosed that he would try his last effort and announce another ban on NVidia export of chips to China either today or tomorrow. Investors please aim all eyes at it, and keep all ear close to it for it would arouse large fluctuation of the market, for NVidia once has the largest market capital of the world, even now just surpassed by Apple again.
In the 2020 general election, because of the computer scandal of Hunter Biden, people thought if Joe Biden was elected he would lead a pro-Beijing attitude. For Hunter Biden had a lot of business with China. Donald Trump even said everyone has to learn Chinese if Biden is elected. But this never had happened. Instead Biden united the G7 to face against China. They compromised when talking with China, every time should start with the problem of human right and intellectual property no matter what the reaction of China is and these years really did happened like this. Trump used to fight solely with China but Biden get a line of countries to work together.
In the Electronic Consumer Show 2025, Jensen Huang announced his latest product of RTX 5090 card, but he also prepared a downgraded version for China, which is known as RTX 5090D. The power is much weaker, but price is 20% higher, for it is tailored made. The global version can have mass production so can be cheaper even more powerful. The downgraded version is in accordance with the specific of sanction, that is they are legal, but Biden now want to have a full sanction and cut all chips export to China less China can chase nearer. This year is the explosion of AI, and if US can leap faster forward, China will be quite hard to chase. Jensen Huang only expressed his disagreement, but it is said that he had not been to Mar-a-Lago to talk with Donald Trump.
Practically, what the market concern most is the dialect between Jensen Huang and Donald Trump rather than between Jensen Huang and Joe Biden. Once China said they would investigate whether NVidia is in violence with the law of monopoly, but at that time people thought China is in need of NVidia more than NVidia in need of China. So the news was only slight harmful to NVidia. But if Biden levy a new law, it might completely ban all export of NVidia to China, the effect is not just harmful to the company, but would have domino effect on IT products of the domestic production. This effect should be carefully evaluated. This action is not just aiming at China, but also prevent the flow of chips from China to Russia, for the war in Ukraine is really too long, today is already the 1055th day. When will it end is really a global concern.