As for curving down the round top market, basically it needs two big and consecutive black candlesticks to confirm the breakthrough. If just one black and rebounded up then down again, that means the drop is not so quick and horrible. Everything now depends on the oil price, whether it continues to go up or down.
The year high of S&P is 7002, therefore a drop of 10% is quite normal indeed, no need to be in panic. Perhaps people are waiting for the golden pit to buy at dip, that’s why the drop is just moderate.
Negotiations are on the way, but the greatest supporter is still military power. The Houthis joined Iran and started to cause disturbance in Bab el-Mandeb Strait of Red Sea. Even though Donald Trump gave a lot of verbal consolation, the market still fell. What they are waiting to see is how the US force can make Iran surrender without changing the regime. That is, hawkish people will become dovish. Anyway, the aftermath will bring about inflation that the Federal Reserve might have to give rise to interest rate instead of cutting.
However, the Artemis II project is entering into another stage. It brings about a lot of hope. In the 1960s, there were the Project Mercury which only had 1 crew, and Gemini Project 2 crews, Apollo Project 3 crews, this time Artemis is 4 crews per flight. The whole project does not just aim at landing as last century, but already has a full plan of development and emigration to establish an outer city on the Moon or Mars. It will be a long-term project, not just for years or decades, but centuries. So better find a low to invest. Some even retreated still very high like PL, some are retreating but still above the neckline like UFO. Since the market is adjusting, so no need to be in a hurry, but a lot of people treat it as a golden pit and start Treasure Hunting.
In such a case, better find those that have broader exposure, such as some stocks can also be treated as military stocks and space stocks like LMT, RTX, NOC and BA. And BA can also be treated as travelling stock. For ARKX and UFO, they can also be treated as IT stocks. We don’t know how long the war will last, but anyway, when you have a positive expectation on the talks, you should prepare well for the road of recovery. That is after the war, which stocks will recover first. Whether the war is over or not, Artemis Moon Landing Project still will carry on. Next year, they are scheduled to send astronauts to land on the Moon again.
One thing is sure; the current AI trend is not a bubble. The demand in the Space Industry is a great support for the AI trend. Not only can it provide great usage of AI, but also, they can generate enough electricity for the enormous usage of AI on earth. The supply of electricity on earth will be so saturated soon that it must be developed in space or on the Moon. Now the supply is so tight that they say no need to say “Thank You” in the GPT talks, for it will be a waste of electricity.
So better find some stocks that are willing to develop the supply of electricity in space for their usage or else they will meet with great hindrances. Meanwhile, don’t forget in the rest of this year, there will be 2 great IPOs of SpaceX and Open AI which are an impetuous fire to the market among the fireballs in the Middle East.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
