The Market Just Shrugged Off a War
A year ago, a headline that the US had bombed Iran, or that Ukraine had struck Moscow with a new missile, would have sent stocks sharply lower. This week both happened, and the market barely blinked. The old fear reflex is gone.
Investors now filter almost everything through one lens: the Fed. The Iran conflict reignited and pushed oil back toward its pre-war level, yet the market is reading the disruption as a reason the Fed might cut rates instead of hiking. Just ten days ago the odds pointed to a near-certain increase; now the talk has flipped toward a possible cut, so even a war lands as a positive.
The same upside-down logic hit Samsung. It posted a monster quarter, operating profit up 1,810% and revenue up 129%, and the stock still slid into a bear market, down more than 20% alongside SK Hynix. When a result is that spectacular, the market decides it cannot get better and sells the peak, the move that started with Nvidia back in November 2025. Good news is sold, bad news bought.
The one warning: numbness is not safety. Oil is curling up off a base, the big Asian chipmakers are already in bear markets, and NASDAQ is still trapped inside a descending triangle. A market that shrugs at everything is the one most likely to be caught out when a shock finally sticks.
The focus of the market today: investors have stopped pricing war and price only the Fed, reading great news as a top and bad news as a reason to buy.
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US Stock Express 20260709 anti war Samsung Hynix TSM
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.