Oil tankers are now avoiding passing through the Hormuz Strait, civil planes are also avoiding using the air passage of Iran for they do not know what will happen. Too risky indeed! Of course, petroleum can shift to other ports in the Red Sea or Mediterranean Sea if they do not use the Hormuz Strait. So, the cost of oil will be higher and higher if war carries on a long-term basis.
In the Operation Midnight Hammer of June 2025, oil price reached the high of $77.62, and last closing price on Friday was at $67.81. Before the Operation Epic Fury (in Israel they are named as Operation Roaring Lion), most people expect this time the price will break the high of last year. However, when it is under the psychological barrier of $100, still acceptable, the impact on the financial market is limited. But when it is over the record high of $147 of 2007, may lead to a greater fall in US stock market and will hurt the midterm election seriously.
Mind that the USD Index is forming an ascending triangle and is going to have a breakthrough upward. PLTR and COIN are forming double bottom, CRCL already gone up after cooling period. AMZN has a similar ascending triangle with the USD Index, AVGO is similar to NVDA but the former is weaker. TSLA is what Elon Musk said full of hope and will reach $2000 after years.
One more thing to keep in mind is that Magnificent Seven is weaker than NASDAQ, which is the main reason why the stock indexes are going up and net profit of some small investors are going down. It is called Hindenburg Omen. Latest news that China will supply missiles to Iran, but Iran is now having no effort to support drones to Russia. Will this make the Russian Ukraine War ends earlier? US again send off B2 which is manufactured by NOC.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.