When PCE is announced to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%, originally it is a bad news to stocks, but as a rule inflation is wounded down to between 2.0%-2.5%, it is a grey area and not easy to go down straightly, and certain rebounded is within expectation. The market was near record high, but later when White House confirmed Tariff War would fire as usual, black candlesticks are shown in 3 major indexes.
They are still in an integral uptrend. A lot of I-banks and Funds expect S&P would reach 6,500 – 7,000 points this year. In Jan 2nd, S&P opens on 5903 and Jan 31st closes on 6040, a gain of 137 points per month, more than average expectation. The fact is that since mid-November it has been going horizontally, and most people expect the yearly rise of 2025 would be smaller than 2024 or 2023.
Under the shadow of tariff war and currency war, spot gold (XAU) made intraday record high at 2817. The China market share occupies 17% of NVDA profits and now is in weak trend for it has risen too much in the past. MSFT in same position. Even Trump said 98% of American chips are from TSM and would levy their tax, it still rises. The Arizona plant is producing 4nm chips now and schedule to produce 3nm this year, which means 2nm and 1.2nm chips still will produce in Taiwan. The latter would be what US want most and need most. META is still rocketing up.
GOOG is breaking upward of an ascending triangle, PLTR and SOFI are still in strong uptrend. To sum up, we have to observe further what the tariff of Trump is. Whether it would bring about inflation, recession or Make America Great Again.