NASDAQ 100 Breaks 30,000: The Rate Hike Nobody Stopped
NASDAQ 100 broke 30,000 points today while the Fed is pricing a rate hike, a war is active in Hormuz, and the Buffett Indicator sits at 212%. QQQ closed at $727.89, outpacing the NASDAQ index itself by roughly 0.7% per year due to its rebalancing structure. The bull market that started in the Orionid Meteor Shower of October 2022 has now run for three and a half years without breaking.
CME FedWatch now shows that by January 27, 2027, the probability of rates staying at 350 to 375 is 39.6%, while the probability of a hike to 375 to 400 has reached 40.9%. Rate hikes are historically negative for technology stocks. The market climbed anyway. The reason: fear of inflation is what ordinary Americans care about most right now, and the technology growth story is winning over the rate headwind.
Trump, TACO, and NACHO: What the Labels Tell Investors
The Iran ceasefire broke again. The US navy sank Iranian ships after discovering Iran was laying mines in public waters, a violation of ceasefire terms. Trump told reporters on Saturday that peace was imminent. On Sunday he said there was no hurry. This pattern has earned two nicknames: TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out, and NACHO, Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
What matters for investors is not the political commentary but the market response. The Nikkei closed at 64,996, just below its 65,000 record. Korean and Taiwanese markets also hit record highs. East Asia is heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil, yet none of these markets moved. The market has decided the conflict is chronic rather than acute, and priced it accordingly. Iran’s uranium enrichment sits at 60%, with a 60-day grace period ending by late July. The Hormuz problem has not resolved. It has simply stopped moving prices.
TSMC and the 5th Largest Stock Market in the World
Taiwan’s total stock market capitalisation reached $4.95 trillion on May 25, surpassing India’s $4.92 trillion to become the fifth largest in the world, behind the US at $77.95 trillion, China at $15.61 trillion, Japan at $8.7 trillion, and Hong Kong at $7.25 trillion. TSMC alone accounts for 42% of the Taiwan Weighted Index and is up 49% year-to-date.
TSMC is known as the Silicon Shield of Taiwan: the argument that no power would damage Taiwan because the world’s entire chip supply runs through its fabs. It manufactures chips for NVDA, AAPL, GOOG, and every major AI processor on the planet. Warren Buffett bought TSMC and sold after a short period, one of his admitted misjudgements. The lesson Daniel Yue draws from this: following any trade without understanding your own position and conviction is a guaranteed path to getting lost.
What the Charts Are Saying
TSM is rising at a 45-degree angle over the past twelve months, which technical analysts describe as the most sustainable uptrend: steady enough to digest gains, steep enough to remain attractive. TSLA at $431 is recovering, driven partly by its indirect exposure to the SpaceX IPO through its X.AI holdings. NVDA at $215 continues to sell off on good news, a pattern holding since the Harvest Moon of November 2025. The sowing period that started in October 2022 at $12 has entered the harvest phase, and long-term holders are exiting on every positive announcement.
WTI oil dropped to the bottom of its Bollinger Bands and the Ichimoku Cloud support level. Lower oil gave Asian markets the room to break records despite the Hormuz tensions. QQQ at $727.89 is running ahead of the NASDAQ index by a compounding 0.7% per year, a small number that grows meaningfully over a five-year horizon.
What Investors Should Do Now
- NASDAQ 100 at 30,000: Historic milestone; add to QQQ on pullbacks rather than chasing the breakout at all-time highs
- TSM (45-degree trend): The most sustainable chart pattern in the current market; still absent from Magnificent 7 and 10, still the backbone of every AI chip on earth
- NVDA (harvest phase): Buyers from October 2022 are taking profits on every good news; not a sell signal for new positions, but a signal to wait for consolidation before adding
- TSLA (SPCX play): Rising on SpaceX IPO sentiment; holds X.AI which may merge with SpaceX and Tesla by 2027; indirect space economy exposure for those who cannot buy SPCX on day one
- Rate hike timeline: CME prices a hike by January 2027; interest rate sensitivity will increase heading into late 2026; keep dry powder for post-IPO volatility
Key Takeaway: NASDAQ 100 broke 30,000 in a rate-hike environment because the market has stopped waiting for geopolitics to resolve and started pricing the next decade: SPCX on June 12, TSMC at 42% of Taiwan, and an AI infrastructure race spending $750 billion this year.
Related reading: TSM Analysis · Space Economy · 250-SMA Strategy · Fear Greed Index
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.