Rare Earth is not so rare on earth, but the exploration and refining is a disgusting industry. It arouses great pollution and the laws of environmental pollution in western countries are so strict and they are not willing to handle it. So, it will be treated as e-rubbish and ask developing economies to swallow them. China is a country matured in economy and the second largest economy in the world just after US. Can it be treated as emerging economies? Sometimes can and sometimes not!
When talking about space race, military race and vaccine development, of course they would consider themselves invincible, not just developed country, but leader of the world. When talking about environmental protection and tariff, they think they should be treated as emerging countries which should have a lot of preference.
For western countries, they only want to produce high tech products and low-tech products would let the emerging economies earn their money and leave a way for them. But in the Covid-19 pandemic, suddenly they found all antibiotics, mask, protective clothing and ventilator are all made in China. So, when they want to go to China to investigate the origin of Covid-19, China stopped the supply at once. For China said Covid-19 is not originated from China, but from US.
So western countries awoke at once and move those production lines to India, Vietnam and ASEAN countries. But their eyesight was so limited and forgot there is a product known as rare earth. In the 2010 island dispute, China and Japan had arguments on an island in East Sea, China called that island Diao Yu Island and Japan called Senkaku Islands. China stopped the supply of rare earth to Japan and henceforward, Japan explores and refine rare earth on their own. Now they can be totally independent developed.
A lot of countries are having exploration of rare earth but most of them sent to China for refining because of pollution. The refining plants and areas around are polluted like landscape on the Moon. Even underground water is greatly poisoned and extended to enormous area. Citizens around are greatly hurt in pollution. But in China there is no such figures concerning pollution and people can hardly place their objection not as western countries which have to face voting periodically. They can earn money and news is always controlled; only good news will be announced and bad news seldom heard. Such as e-rubbish they have been accepting for quite long a time, so why not absorb refining of rare earth?
Now, suddenly they found that besides earning money, there is a bonus. They can control the whole world by the supply of rare earth. Donald Trump would accept any terms only if he can get the supply of rare earth. For semiconductor, the quantity is very limited, but for a F-35 fighter, it needs 900 pounds of rare earth for catalyst.
China has been developing and refining rare earth for over 40 years. They have abundant plants, skillful and experience workers. Just like Covid-19, US said they would move the Apple factories to India with effective from Feb 2020. India at once established a Science Park which is known as Silicon Valley of India, and the size is twice as large as Shenzhen in South China. But the first batch of mass production was in early 2025. That means it took 5 years for the first step.
So now G7 united together to fight with China in the rare earth warfare, they are having a comprehensive new plan to work together. How long it needs for US to be fully independent? Last time there was a saying it takes 3 to 8 years, this time the AI divided them into short, medium and long term. The longest time may need 20 years. But the shortest time is also as before, which is 3 years. That means there are 2 major analyses, one said it needs 3-8 years and another said 3-20 years. Anyway, for short term there is no wrong which is 3 years. That means, US will be in difficult time for at least 3 years, and then will gradually lower the burden year by year.
For further review, please refer to The Express of 20250806, 20251013, 20251016 and 20251017. So the writer believes Donald Trump will knee down and accept any terms in order to get the supply of rare earth for these 3 years. How about 3 years later? His presidency is going to the end, none of his business.