On Friday, when the verdict of Supreme Court released in mid-market that tariff war of Donald Trump is illegal, it is bad news, but the US stock market had not gone down but up. What the market hates actually is uncertainty, when it is fixed, all shadow gone away. Actually, people expected Trump will be defeated. He has already prepared plan B of 150 days tariff and plan C of designated area without time limit. Most people were expecting there would be a third neutral way for Trump to run so as to lessen the shock to stock market.
Another worry is the Iranian War, no need to be hurry, for there is a State of Union Address on Tuesday, war surely will be started after that. This time Trump is well prepared, for in January, he ordered the F35 to take off and attack but finally called them back after thorough evaluation, that the scale of attack was not enough to end everything at once. This time Trump sent 2 aircraft carriers and asked UK to lent out airbase in Middle East, people believe he has already had full preparation. War may not be ended in 2 or 3 days, but if ended in weeks still good news. However, when extended to months, it is a disaster to mid-term election. In the Gulf War of 1990 of Bush senior and Iraqi war of 2003 of Bush junior, stock market fell for several months and gold rose for several months before breaking out of the war. But as soon as the day of starting, stock rebounded greatly and gold fell greatly, for all bad news had come out and no more bad news in the future. Both time the major fighting ended in just a few weeks. Would history re-appears this time?
For 3 major indexes, DJIA is the strongest, and will soon go over 5 major average lines. S&P is in the middle among the 3 major indexes, also having a chance of breaking through. NASDAQ is weakest, but met with resistance at lower ranging zone. The 250-SMA of 3 major indexes are still rising. Basically, still in integral uptrend and bull market.
For individual stocks, TEM developed a new RNA to fight against cancer and formed a double bottom and now breaking upward, seemed to be the end of falling. COIN again in same situation formed double bottom even Bitcoin had no double bottom, therefore it is running ahead of its master. PLTR is forming a double bottom but not yet completely formed. GOOG is touching the 100 SMA and rebounded, mind that the white candlestick is very large recently. TSM is also rising, they are aggressive to break record high. Regretfully these two stocks are too high indeed. AVGO is following NVDA, ranging in the middle. In March NVDA will have a great news of new product development in light and power, watch carefully. NVDA will have result announcement coming Wednesday and normally it is the Grand Finale of Magnificent Seven. We have to see this time whether good announcement will bring to a fall since such a trend was inaugurated in Nov by NVDA. If TSLA continues to go down it is a head & shoulders so it must go up.
Market is in reverse trading, good news will bring down market such as nice result announcement, bad news will push up market such as Trump’s tariff war is condemned illegal and now facing refund of tariff. Market is in cross road of over-estimation and burst of bubble economy. Investors have to make a wise judgement now. Therefore, we have to know the economy of US is in whatsoever cycle. It is not easy to be explained in a single word. Anyway, year 2026 is the year of juncture no matter for economy and development of human society.