The Trumpet Shape That Explains a Contradiction
For the past week the story was rate hikes and rotation into health stocks. Today’s report adds a piece that resolves something that should not add up: rate hikes usually sink markets, yet many analysts still expect the S&P to climb toward 8,000-8,300 by year end. The market’s real focus has shifted to reconciling that tension, and the answer lives in the shape of the chart itself.
Daniel Yue calls it a Trumpet shape, the Elliott Wave pattern where the swings simply get wider: each new high tops the last, but each new low undercuts the one before it too. It is why some analysts see the S&P falling to 7,300 while others see 8,300, and in this pattern both can be right at once. His own target stays at 7,900, unmoved since it was set as a full-year call, not a mid-year guess.
The second layer connects straight to Friday’s jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June, and unemployment ticked down to 4.2% only because fewer people are looking for work, a detail that changes what the number really means. That soft print lands right as Bill Gates warns AI could eventually cut the human workweek to two or three days, a claim the employment data does not yet support.
The one warning: the heat map shows AI names and the Magnificent Seven cooling while healthcare climbs, so the very stocks that built this bull market are no longer the ones leading it.
The focus of the market today: a widening Trumpet shape that lets both bulls and bears be correct, while the jobs number quietly tests Silicon Valley’s biggest promise.
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US Stock Express 20260706 Trumpet shape and AI replacing human
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.