A Hollywood Script: How Trump’s Iran Policy Moves Markets
The Market Observation title for April 22 is “Don’t Forget the Economic Side,” and the opening context is worth capturing for any market diary. On February 27, the day before Operation Epic Fury began, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 43 (Fear). As the war carried on, it fell to 10 on March 30, with an intraday reading as low as 7. On that day this edition told investors to turn their focus to the space industry. Today the index reads 71 (Greed). That journey from 7 to 71 in under four weeks is the entire story of this cycle.
The reason the market keeps rising despite the threat not being fully resolved is a principle worth memorizing: the market fears uncertainty more than disaster. At the start of Operation Epic Fury, nobody knew the outcome. The indexes fell. As the military picture clarified — 90% of Iran’s firepower destroyed, anti-blockade of Iranian ports proving more effective than the Hormuz blockade, the F-15 officer rescue completing the psychological picture — uncertainty drained away. What remains is one negotiating point: enriched uranium. The US wants a 20-year ban. Iran is offering five years. That gap is bridgeable. The US has already agreed that Iran may collect Hormuz passing fees as war compensation. The rest, as Daniel Yue puts it, plays out like a Hollywood movie: bombers scrambled and called back by the same hand, Maduro captured, 48 Iranian leaders decapitated in the opening hours of the operation, the F-15 officer recovered despite a nationwide Iranian search with a $60,000 reward and hundreds of dogs.
The Market Returns to the Economic Side
With military uncertainty resolved, investors are shifting their attention back to where it belongs: the economy. The Federal Reserve chair is being discussed again. Interest rate policy is back on the agenda. At Fear & Greed 71, a technical adjustment is not only possible but healthy. If a pullback arrives, it is a golden pit, not a reversal.
The 8-year weekly charts of QQQ and VOO tell the structural story cleanly. Since the AI trend began, QQQ has outperformed VOO and SPY by a significant margin. More importantly, on the 8-year view, QQQ has remained above its 250-SMA throughout — meaning it has functioned as both a defensive holding and a growth vehicle. The assumption that QQQ is riskier than VOO is a legacy of the dot-com era. In the AI era, that assumption is outdated. QQQ’s 250-SMA currently sits at 426.417 while the price is 649.199 — a structural floor that is far below current prices and confirms the long-term uptrend is intact. WTI fell below the Ichimoku Cloud green band, signaling the oil price uptrend has ended. However, the price remains within Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic has just intersected — a limited downside, with a possible short-term rebound forming.
SpaceX Eyes the Largest IPO in History: $75 Billion, Late June
The biggest IPO news of the decade is advancing. SpaceX held three consecutive days of closed-door briefings this week with top Wall Street analysts at its Texas launch site and Tennessee data center. The company is targeting a raise of $75 billion, which would set the record for the largest IPO in history, with a listing date in late June 2026. The space economy thesis that this edition launched on March 30 at the market low continues to build its fundamental case. SpaceX going public will be a defining event for the year.
Citigroup’s research team issued a sobering oil inventory assessment. Even if the US-Iran ceasefire is extended this week and Hormuz normalizes by end of June, global crude inventories will have fallen by 900 million barrels, bringing total losses to 1.3 billion barrels — an eight-year low. A one-month extension pushes that to 1.3 billion. A two-month delay would produce a 1.7 billion barrel deficit (a 25-year low), a $130 Brent surge in Q2, and a reconstruction timeline exceeding two years. Vice President JD Vance is preparing to travel to Islamabad for a second round of Iran peace talks. The EU and UN assessed that Gaza will require over $71 billion in recovery funds over the next ten years.
Don’t Forget the Economic Side: What Comes After the War
The market is already pricing the post-war chapter. France and the UK are in discussions about how to keep the Strait of Hormuz open after peace is reached. The irony, as Daniel Yue notes, is that these conversations were already happening in 2006 — and the same parties who sat on the sidelines throughout the conflict are now the loudest voices on post-war governance. NATO, the UN, and the EU did nothing to prevent the piracy or economic terrorism in international waters. The reconstruction of global energy supply will be the next multi-year trade.
The investment posture remains: two-handed preparation. The war ending is bullish for equities broadly. The enriched uranium standoff continuing produces volatility but not direction change. Any pullback from Fear & Greed 71 is a golden pit opportunity. The rare earth sector remains the next crisis to position for ahead of any Trump-Xi meeting.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Fear & Greed at 71 (Greed) — the journey from 7 to 71 in under four weeks is complete; the next move is a golden pit pullback before the next leg higher; treat any adjustment as a buy signal, not an exit
- QQQ above 250-SMA at 426.417 — the 8-year chart confirms QQQ outperforms VOO in the AI era; it is both defensive and profitable; do not let dot-com era bias keep you in the slower ETF
- SpaceX IPO: late June 2026 — $75 billion target would be the largest IPO in history; space economy positioning ahead of the listing is the pre-IPO trade of the year
- WTI within Bollinger Bands — oil downtrend confirmed but limited; Stochastic intersecting suggests a short-term bounce possible before the longer decline resumes toward pre-war levels
- Second Iran talks: JD Vance to Islamabad — uranium gap (20 years vs 5 years) is the only sticking point; a deal is close, and any announcement remains a gap-up event
Key Takeaway: The market fears uncertainty, not disaster. The military outcome in Iran is known. The economic conversation has resumed. Fear & Greed at 71 means the easy money has been made — every pullback from here is a golden pit, not a warning.
Related reading: Epic Fury and the Iran Crisis · Space Economy · Mind the Oil Futures · Various Kinds of ETFs · How to Catch the Bottom
Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.