SPCX’s Real Test Isn’t the IPO Pop, It’s the Share Lockup
For the past several days the focus was almost entirely on Iran, the Hormuz Strait, and a binary war-or-peace clock. Today the report pivots hard to SPCX, testing an old Wall Street rule that you never touch an IPO in its first 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months, on the largest IPO in US history.
SPCX popped for its first 3 days, then fell back below its IPO price and keeps sliding, now hovering between the $120 level and the $100 psychological floor. Cathie Wood bought in at $150 and $130 and is still underwater. The real test is not today’s chart. It is next month, when restricted shares held by early staff and institutional buyers unlock onto the open market.
This ties to Korea. KOSPI is down 28% from its June top, but the leveraged Samsung and SK Hynix ETF selling behind that drop is now over 75% finished, and a rebound is underway. That rebound, more than anything happening in the Gulf, is what has actually stopped SPCX, PHLX and NASDAQ from falling further this week.
Underneath the support-level talk is an honest admission, nobody actually knows if $100 holds, since some investors buy at $105 and others wait for $90. The Yen sitting at a 40-year low and the still-unresolved Hormuz chaos remain the quiet wildcard behind both the lockup and the Korea trade.
Watch the lockup date and the Korean ETF unwind, not the IPO chart. That combination decides SPCX’s next big move.
Full report available via the download button below. Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
US Stock Express 20260723 IPO SPCX
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.