Tesla is going to develop their Cybercab in April 2026, an autonomous electric vehicle with no pedals or steering wheel, and also their Optimus 3 humanoid robot will have mass production in 2026. There will be a great demand in chips. Can TSM fully supply them? Workers in Arizona plant are not as diligent as those in Taiwan. The worker union aims at “work life balance”, not as in Taiwan where they are running for 24 hours in 3 shifts. Workers need to develop their own recreation, which means re-create, when they go for entertainment, it is not just for enjoyment, but re-create more energy for working. This is the major difference between Asians and Americans.
Say it other words, TSLA is facing a shortage in supply of chips, but not immediate threat, anyway better prepare well for future. The whole AI industry is also facing a shortage of supply of electricity, but we believe Donald Trump will have another project soon, that is to co-operate with other to increase the electricity supply of US. Will talk about later.
TSLA is now in contract with TSM and Samsung, but they want to develop their “Tesla Ferra Fab”, which is more important than Giga factory, will be 10 times of volume of TSM. Is it possible for this superman Elon Musk? Anther superman Jensen Huang said it is very hard. Actually, Musk is developing AI-5 and AI-6, which will be 10 times of the previous years. So, what we can know now is that there will be really a shortage when AI develops, not only for TSLA, but also the Magnificent Seven needs extra chips for development. Even though the shortage may not come in 2026, but should prepare well before it is too late.
The idea of Tesla Terra Fab is necessary, anyway similar project must be launch out now. Even Taiwan and Korea are friendly partners and not rivals, but depending too much on others are not so clever, must have their own independence to some extent.
Thus, we know that why the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stood out to say she would protect Taiwan when being attacked, and we know why Donald Trump at once shown his support to her after the phone call with China. No need to say that when TSMC is occupied by others, even a delay in supply or hindrance in production is a disaster to most IT giants. Say it simple, no need to worry World War III, but if there is a chance of Liberation War of Taiwan by China, before that any embargo, or any threat of production will affect the production of TSMC. When the supply is hindered, a lot of IT giants will be out of action in several weeks, and their factory production will be stopped or hindered at once before the starting of a war. That’s why western countries are trying their best to stop the breaking out of a war.
At the current stage, the threat of shortage in supply of semiconductor is just a long-term worry, not immediate outcome, but must prepare well for it. If this project is too hard, still have time and room to try for other projects, but should speed up. Anyway, should hurry up and investors should put an eye on it.