Who is the real winner of the war in Iran is not decided on the battlefield; it is decided by the price of WTI. The high of last June, under Operation Midnight Hammer, was $77.62. Now, it is $70.89. When the price is pressed under $77.62, the US has achieved a complete victory. When it is over $77.62 but still under $100, the US is still the winner but must pay out some precious value. When it breaks the all-time record high of $147, Iran is the real winner. WTI is the real battlefield, and the truth lies in the price, not in the arms.
The military action will be finished in four weeks, and the first two weeks will consist of major, precise, and concentrated fighting. This timing matches market expectations. Once this period is over, the US will be considered defeated by market response. Victory or loss does not lie in the war zone; it lies in WTI and inflation.
Modern war styles are changing. In 1945, the atomic bombs in Japan led the world into the nuclear stage. In the 1991 Gulf War, precise missile attacks and smart bombs replaced carpet bombing and kamikaze planes. In 2026, paralyzing the command system is the mainstream strategy. PLTR plays a vital part in this, and drones are just a bonus. Iran has a population of over 93 million, while Venezuela has only 28 million. Iran even exports drones to Russia, while Venezuelan arms rely entirely on imports. The greatest difference is that Maduro believed the US could not capture him even with seven residences. In Iran, the US has already issued an ultimatum and signaled that they can strike at any time. Both Maduro and Khamenei have only a few minutes to escape into safety tunnels, but with the help of PLTR, the US is just a few minutes faster in completing the task of capturing or killing. Once the major task of decapitation is finished, the rest of the fighting is considered secondary; it becomes a question of how long it takes to complete, not who will win.
PLTR is the major actor, currently working with Anthropic and soon to be replaced by OpenAI. Mind this situation before it comes true.
The modern war style depends on paralyzing the counterpart and ensuring their group of key leaders die at the same minute, similar to the pager explosions in Israel. Even if the remaining forces can fight, it is difficult to pass commands down. When the veteran leaders are gone, the replacements may be powerful, but they are rarely as competent, which creates a cascade of problems. Trump stated that 48 Iranian leaders were killed in the first wave of attack. This modern style replaces carpet bombing and traditional missile strikes. This change is even more significant than the war in Ukraine, which moved from 70-mile convoys to the heavy use of Iranian-supported drones.
PLTR has just formed a complex double bottom, or perhaps a triple bottom. COIN has already formed a double bottom and rocketed up, finishing its wave 5. CRCL has also surged. Crypto is benefiting as a safe haven and is rising along with the USD index.
Iran is retaliating against nearby countries because it is too far to fight Israel directly. By attacking oil-producing nations, they hope to push up WTI prices. Both the US and Iran are engaged in a great gamble on the price of WTI. Iran refuses to compromise because their hope lies in high oil prices. Trump decided to fight because he believes his modern war system can paralyze the opposition and keep WTI down. Ultimately, the warzone is a casino.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.