Waiting for…… - iHandbook
Waiting for……

Waiting for……

Author: Daniel Yue
Date: 05.03.2026

What is the market waiting for? Trump said that the operation would finish in 4 to 5 weeks. However, the market will not wait so long. Let’s see the price of petroleum, the closing price of WTI on last Friday is $67.02. On Monday it jumped up and opened at $75.49 but closed at $71.23. Because war has broken out, so it should rise, but closed so low for the decapitation of Khamenei has been done, and the rest of fighting should be secondary. Therefore, oil price is still under the high of last June $77.62. There was no change of regime, and Iran said they would not let a single drop of oil to pass through Strait of Hormuz, so a white candlestick pushed up the price to the high $78.00 and when Donald Trump promised to escort the tankers and ask the US International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to take up the insurance of tankers going through the Strait, it dropped to close at $74.45. On Wednesday, it is still stable.

 

Some tankers are waiting outside the Strait and wish to pass through when the situation allows. The Strait is not totally blocked; other ships still can go in and out freely but tankers dare not to move. Some insurance companies refused to take up the risk and Trump asked the IDFC to take up the bill of insurance and said willing to escort the tankers.

 

Experienced investors should recall what happened in 1988, US warships did provide escort service and later by Japanese warships. Tankers dared not enter the Strait and waited for the arrival of the US destroyer. It was a war between Iran and Iraq, the US had not taken part in it, but just acted as police to make them pass the Strait easily. The destroyer goes in the front and the tanker follows. Unluckily the destroyer was hit by a mine under water. So, in turn the tanker goes in front of and destroyer at the back. The protector and protectee exchanged the place, for those tankers are up to 400,000 tons and destroyers only 8,000 tons. Japan at that time was the master of the seas, for the first tanker up to 100,000 tons was manufactured by them, and later 200,000 tons, 300,000 tons and 400,000 tons of tankers were also first manufactured by them. The oil companies hired their tankers for transporting the oil, therefore logically Japan can send their warships for escort service, the first-time sending warships outside the country after World War II.

 

So now what the US should do is to send warships to escort tankers to go in and out the Strait safely and avoid them from being bit by drones and missiles. It is said all major warships of Iran had been sunk, but how about their missile, must be 100% intercepted and let no tankers be hurt or else they would not go through. So, when the first tanker passes safely, oil price will drop and need not to wait for 4 or 5 weeks. If it cannot be done in the next few days, oil prices will rocket up and when near $100, it will lead to a great slump in the stock market. When over the record high of $147 or just getting near, it would trigger the circuit breaker of US stocks.  Investors no need to wait too long, it will be clearer very soon. But what if a tanker is sunk or hurt by Iran? We have to wide open our eyes and see whether this will happen?

 

How about the side of Iran, they will continue not to talk with the US even if a new leader is elected. But the situation is that their radar system is paralyzed. No matter if it is imported from which country, the problem does not lie in the radar, it lies in the EA-18G Growler, the electronic warfare plane. That is, US can see and know what is happening and Iran cannot. So, when they have an important meeting, they do not know the bombs are coming and have no time to respond. While they were talking, suddenly a bomb exploded in front of them and thus ended the meeting and their life before they could realize what was going on.  Of course, after the first bomb hit the head and important members, other people heard the explosion and saw the smoke and knew war had begun and will be on alert, but it will be too late for the first group of people to escape. For every action, they would choose the most important target to hit first and even if the secondary target escaped, they can carry on bombing next time. So, what Iran can do is to bomb other countries of Middle East and wish them give pressure to US to stop the war. There is no use to blame the manufacture of radar, or should upgrade electronic warfare instead.

 

Both sides want to make the fighting as short as possible because the consumption of ammunition is so strong every day. For production power in war time, it is even more limited as important factories will be bombed. The US will also be in shortage, but they can borrow from allies like Europe and Asia. Korea and Japan can sell back the PATRIOT system as Japan is authorized to produce them in Asia. The US can use money to buy back or borrow. Anyway, both sides want to reach their target as soon as possible and no one would like to extend for months or 4-5 weeks.

 

PLTR has gone up a complex double bottom as so many valuable targets need to be aimed at. COIN also finished running the 5 waves of Elliot wave.  Gold price retreated on Tuesday because of margin calls of IT stocks, so war did not make gold go up but down. Crypto also provides a function of safe haven. For energy stocks can try the NEE, it may be the next focus. CRDO will have cooperation with AMD.

 

China and Russia will not help Iran directly, only will support through trading or financing. How long the war lasts is not a problem today. What we have to wait or to see is then will the first frigate escort a 300,000 or 400,000 ton class tanker passes Hormuz Strait peacefully within this week, or else Trump will be considered as defeated. And no need to wait for several weeks.

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