US-Iran Talks: Who’s Lying, and What Should Investors Do Now?
Both Sides Are Telling the Truth
Trump called the talks “productive.” Iran denied any talks happened. Who’s lying? Actually, both are correct.
The negotiations are happening through a middleman — not face to face. Neither side wants to publicly acknowledge contact. The same pattern played out in last year’s tariff talks, where several countries denied negotiations with the US, yet were quietly entering the Treasury Building in Washington at 7am to arrange formal discussions.
A Battle of Face — Who Blinks First
Both sides are fighting for optics. Neither wants to appear as the side that backed down. The goal is for both to eventually claim victory — even if pyrrhic.
The US is pressing its military advantage, but markets have a rule: any war not resolved within 3 weeks is perceived as a defeat. Meanwhile Iran holds a critical geographic card — control of the Persian Gulf entrance and the ability to direct Houthis to block the Red Sea. For context on how geopolitical events move markets, see our Economic Indicators guide.
Western nations want all channels open but oppose a prolonged conflict. Extended war means long-term inflation, disrupted food supply chains, and serious damage to the global economy.
Israel, Iran, and the Negotiator Problem
Israel’s intelligence and targeted eliminations have been remarkably precise. The US is now pressing Israel not to eliminate Iran’s chief negotiator — because Washington needs him to manage Iran’s side of any deal.
What Investors Should Do Now
This is a Treasure Hunting moment. Peace talks moving to Pakistan signal the end of the tunnel is visible — even if still far away.
- ARM is rising sharply — don’t be misled by the ticker. It’s an AI stock, not a defense play
- IT and AI stocks are seeing rotation back in — follow the smart money
- SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs remain the two biggest market catalysts for the rest of 2026
- Monthly instalment strategy — buying TSLA or NVDA on your income day every month brings your average cost close to the annual average. Learn more about technical analysis strategies to time your entries
- Fear & Greed Index at 20 — a historical buy signal. Don’t ignore it
Key Takeaway: The Iran situation is moving toward resolution — slowly, but visibly. Rotate back into AI and tech. Use monthly instalments on Top 10 stocks to navigate volatility without fear. The market rewards those who prepare before the peace, not after.
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.