The war began because Iran violated its agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by enriching uranium beyond peaceful purposes. The U.S. gave Iran a 60-day deadline to reduce its uranium stockpile. Intelligence suggested Iran could produce a nuclear bomb within three weeks. On the 61st day, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
To minimize civilian casualties, Israel conducted precision strikes at 3:00 a.m., eliminating 20 key figures, including military leaders, political figures, and nuclear scientists. All major military bases, radar, and air defense systems were disabled, allowing Israel to gain control of Tehran’s airspace.
Many countries continue to develop nuclear weapons secretly. These underground facilities are hard to destroy, and only the U.S. possesses bunker-busting bombs capable of penetrating up to 200 meters beneath mountains. IAEA reports show no radiation leaks, suggesting Iran’s nuclear sites remain intact.
Iran, once supported by Russia, is now a supplier of drones to Russia. Iran’s missile stockpile is expected to last only another week. Although both Iran and Israel have around 300 fighter jets, Iran’s are largely outdated (e.g., MiG-19s and MiG-21s), while Israel fields modern aircraft like the F-35, F-15, and F-16. Iran still uses the older S-300 air defense system, while Russia has deployed the newer S-400 and S-500.
Israeli jets require two aerial refuelings per mission—one each for the inbound and outbound flights. Their high-precision weaponry is costly and limited, making a prolonged conflict unsustainable.
This war is unlikely to last long. Investors will soon need to refocus on economic and market developments. While Iran could theoretically block the Strait of Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb, it is unlikely to do so, as it still relies heavily on oil revenues.