Why the writer always has special emphasis on the Top 10, Top 15, or Top 20 market capitalization stocks instead of defensive stocks? Because they are the market movers, they lead the market, this is already defensive enough. When you purchase the S&P ETF, you only can get 12% gains annually on the average, but if you bought the market movers from the beginning of this year as suggested, your gains already over 100% now.
ORCL is not on my list, but still shocked the market last night, for the intra-day gains made Larry Ellison once surpassed Elon Musk as the wealthiest people on earth, but Musk regains the champion on market closing. Of course, the battle not yet finished, so I asked Microsoft AI to explain further.
Stocks on Top 10 or Top 15 are all stars of today and not tomorrow, that means they can have shocking news at any time and not just defensive, they can even lead the market to break record high. While in bear market still have strong rebounding power, anyway always can have more gains on the whole than the 3 major indexes and defensive stocks.
The result announcement of ORCL was slightly under expectation, it had not dropped, for the outlook is stunning. Remember the backlog is the contract of cloud business said yesterday with AWS of Amazon, Azure of Microsoft and Google Cloud (GGP). Mind the plateau of business is in 2030, that’s why I said no matter you are aiming at Mars Landing or not, should have an investment plan of 5 years.
Recently, there are some sayings that The Magnificent Seven will have some members to be displaced and some replaced. So, I asked the Microsoft AI Copilot to give comments. It says that TSLA and APPL will be kicked off and replaced by ORCL and AVGO. Please be noted that AI is just an analyst and not a fortune teller. May be the super AI in next generation can have more function on fortune telling. The writer also has some worries in the APPL, for it really dropped after product introduction of i-phone 17. A lot of people said their i-phone 12, 13, 14, or 15 are still functioning well now, no need to change a new one. The era of changing new i-phone every year already passed away, now is the time to change from Chat GPT4 to GPT5 or GPT5 pro, or Azure and AWS.
But humanoid robot is also developed by TSLA, by 2030, every family may have at least one humanoid robot instead of household helper from South East Asian countries or Latin American countries. Full Self Driving will replace all human drivers by 2040. TSLA still will have the greatest market share in these 2 aspects.
Technically, ORCL is not worthy of chasing high now, but can wait for the refill of jumping gap. Larry Ellison of ORCL is also invited by Donald Trump to the Swan & Goose Dinner of White House on Sep 4th. Why I asked the AI to list out its competition with others? Just to show the situation is not a zero-sum game. The rise of ORCL does not mean it will displace its competitors, they are not aiming at replacing the others, instead the last sentence below is “cooperate and conquer”. This is the focus. So, investors no need to think as what is circulating in the market that who will replace and displace whom. They can grow together.