Blockade and Anti-Blockade: When Pirates Meet Pirates
The ceasefire is fragile for a reason that goes back to the first day. Before the war started on February 28, the US had reduced its demands from four points to one: Iran must give up nuclear development. Iran asked for a three-hour pause to consult the supreme leader. The answer came back: No. No. No. Trump’s reply: Go. Go. Go.
The war started. Now the US has 15 points on the negotiating table and Iran has 10. The gap is not narrowing. Iran refuses to abandon nuclear development because without it, the regime believes it has no security guarantee. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed after ceasefire terms were announced, so Trump launched a secondary action: a full US naval blockade. No ships are permitted to pass the Strait at all, and even vessels that had already transited are being pursued by the US Navy for having paid the passing fee to Iran. The stated justification is that a public international waterway cannot be subjected to toll collection. In practice, the UN cannot act, NATO will not act, and the post-World War II international legal framework has no enforcement mechanism. The result, as Daniel Yue puts it plainly, is pirates against pirates.
The US does not need the oil. It is Asia and Europe that are exposed. The blockade is an economic instrument designed to cut Iran’s revenue until the regime yields. Whether that strategy succeeds depends on who can sustain the economic pain longer. Militarily, Iran has no path to victory. Economically, the question is more open. The market is watching and not panicking. It is trading in a narrow range, absorbing the news, and waiting for the second round of talks.
Fear & Greed at 39: The Market Is Not Afraid of the Blockade
The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 39 today, up from 37 at the previous close and above last Friday’s 38. The note in today’s report is direct: the market is not afraid of the anti-blockade effect. One week ago the index was at 22. One month ago it was at 21. One year ago it was at 8. The consistent recovery from extreme fear toward fear, and now toward the border of neutrality, is the most important chart in any investor’s toolkit right now.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,819.98, essentially flat at +0.05%. The overlay of WTI and the S&P shows the two instruments moving inversely, with the S&P’s lowest point on April 7 and WTI’s lowest point on April 8 US time. The jumping gap created in April and May 2025 was never refilled, which means the April 2026 gap carries a 50/50 probability of filling. There is no certainty either way. What is certain is that a market trading flat through a naval blockade is a market that is not positioned for catastrophe.
COIN and MSTR at the Bottom: Cathie Wood’s 2026 Crypto Call
COIN (Coinbase) closed at $173.07, up 3.1% on the session. MSTR (Strategy Inc) closed at $131.13, up 1.9%. Both names are far below their peaks and both are showing early signs of a base. Cathie Wood stated publicly that 2026 is the year for crypto, and the bottom on both appears to have been reached.
One honest note is worth including here. In the Express of August 26, 2025, AI analysis projected MSTR would rise from $358.13 to $2,729.17 by year end. The current price is $131.13. AI is a powerful tool and not an infallible one. No model, however sophisticated, can fully price geopolitical disruption of this magnitude. The lesson is not to dismiss AI analysis, but to treat it as one input among several, not as a forecast with certainty attached.
The structural case for crypto remains intact. Iran has mandated Bitcoin as the currency for Hormuz passing fees. That creates ongoing, sovereign-level demand for BTC that did not exist six months ago. The de-dollarization narrative has moved from theory to implemented policy. COIN and MSTR at current levels represent the most direct equity exposure to that shift.
Hungary Turns Pro-EU, Ireland Cuts Fuel Tax, and the IMF Warns on Prices
Viktor Orbán lost the Hungarian parliamentary election on April 12. The pro-EU Tissa party won 138 of 199 seats, and its leader pledged comprehensive reforms. Orbán had been in power since 2010 and had used Hungary’s position to veto EU legislation repeatedly, in some cases under suspicion of corruption. His departure removes a structural obstacle to EU decision-making and is a quiet positive for European institutional coherence.
In Ireland, high oil prices triggered protests by freight operators serious enough to threaten national emergency services. The Irish government responded with immediate tax cuts on petrol and diesel, a sign that energy cost pressure is translating into domestic political action across Europe faster than anyone anticipated. The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva added her own warning: even if the ceasefire holds, global prices will not return to pre-war levels for some time, and for the most affected regions the timeline is even longer.
NASA’s Artemis II astronauts described seeing Earth from deep space as a lone boat adrift in an endless dark universe, and called for unity among humanity. The space economy they represent continues building momentum regardless of what happens at the negotiating table in Islamabad.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Crypto at the base — COIN at $173 and MSTR at $131 appear to have found their floor; Iran’s Bitcoin toll policy creates structural BTC demand; Cathie Wood’s 2026 crypto thesis is still live
- Fear & Greed at 39 — the market is absorbing a naval blockade without panic; the index is now approaching neutral from below; the fear window is closing but not yet closed
- S&P gap probability — the April 2026 jumping gap carries 50/50 odds of refilling; do not over-position in either direction; wait for the second round of talks to resolve the binary
- Oil and energy exposure — IMF warns prices will stay elevated even after ceasefire; Ireland’s fuel tax cuts signal downstream political pressure across Europe; energy names remain structurally supported
- Interest rate risk — four major central banks held this week but all are watching second-round effects; the BOE is already priced for a hike; review rate-sensitive positions before the next FOMC window
Key Takeaway: The US has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran collecting passing fees, the post-WWII international order has no mechanism to stop it, and the market is trading flat through all of it. That resilience at Fear & Greed 39 is the signal. COIN and MSTR at current levels are the entry.
Related reading: Iran Crisis and the Market · Crypto and Bitcoin · Dollar Hegemony · Mind the Oil Price
Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.