The highest level of analysis is to find out when will exceptional case occurs.
Normally, war would only push down stock prices and push up gold price, even AI would aim at rise of oil prices. Practically, both oil price and gold price shown a big black candlestick on Monday. This is an exceptional case, on Friday, I purchased AMD and it formed a doji on Friday and a big white candle stick on Monday. PLTR made record high on Monday, and I add on purchasing TEM on Monday. They all continued to rise. ARKW had a gap jumping up.
All airports in Teheran were closed because of the war, but only one civil plane flied to Moscow. Surely, someone important is inside, it is said to be Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. Because Israel used precise attack of 20 targets of beheading at the same time, including political leader, military key man and nuclear engineers. So no one important dare to stay in Iran again less be killed at any time. So even if they can block the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, they dare not to do so, or else the commander will be beheaded at once.
In US, great arguments occurs whether illegal immigrants should be clear our all at once, including those underground workers who has stayed for 30 years or more. But the great problem occurred in whether the president should sent national guards without the consent of state government. It is under a court case now, but demonstration all over the country is said to be having 5 million people, one of the largest in US. The pros and cons are in enemy state, US is on the edge of civil war.
Facing such a case, US stocks would not fall but rise and some are on record high, the writer keep on buying. Gold and oil price will not rise but fall. Why? It may take 3 whole days and nights to explain this exceptional case.