Two Shocks, One Deadline
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 19. Two separate shocks hit on April 3: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial shipping, pushing WTI crude toward $111 per barrel, and the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on virtually every US trading partner. Though global indexes showed mixed signals on the day. Both pressures are still active heading into April 6.
Trump has given Iran until 8 PM Eastern Time on Monday to reopen the Strait or face strikes on energy facilities. Iran rejected the US 15-point proposal and countered with a demand for international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait, a non-starter for Washington. Four intermediaries remain active but direct talks have not started. The chance of a deal by the deadline stands at 60 percent due to discounting stock indexes.
What to Watch This Weekend
Count the supertankers. If large vessels of 200,000 tons or above start moving through the Hormuz Strait again, even in small numbers, the market will read it as de-escalation and a sharp rebound follows. If the Strait stays blocked when markets open Monday, oil pushes higher and the three major indexes face another test of the 250-day moving average, the key line between a normal correction and something more serious.
Beyond the Deadline
The Artemis II crew completed their translunar injection burn on April 2 and the lunar flyby is scheduled for April 6, the same day as the Hormuz deadline. Artemis is not cancelled by tariffs or wars. Space stocks such as LMT, NOC, RKLB and ETFs UFO and ARKX hold their long-term investment case regardless of Monday’s outcome.
On quantum computing, Google confirmed its internal security migration timeline shortened to 2029. IonQ posted 202 percent revenue growth in 2025 and guides for up to $245 million in 2026. Rigetti deploys a 108-qubit system this year with $590 million in cash. The pullback is creating better entry prices on stocks with real long-term demand.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Fear & Greed at 19 — historically one of the best 12-month buying opportunities; do not abandon positions built at 15
- Tanker count — the simplest real-time indicator of Hormuz de-escalation; watch it daily
- 250-day moving average — a confirmed close above it after Monday is the green light to buy more
- Space stocks — LMT, NOC, RKLB, UFO, ARKX remain intact through any geopolitical outcome
- Quantum entry — IONQ and RGTI pullback is a window; Q-Day 2029 does not move with the news cycle
Key Takeaway: Two clocks are running at once. One counts down to Monday’s Hormuz deadline. The other counts down to Q-Day 2029. Fear at 19 is not the moment to exit. It is the moment to position.
Related reading: Oil Price Watch · Quantum Computing Stocks · Space Economy · Fear and Greed Strategy
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Investor, analyst and financial writer with 15 years in the markets. MSc Finance, KIMEP University. Former contributor to MarketWatch and ValueWalk.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Investor, analyst and financial writer with 15 years in the markets. MSc Finance, KIMEP University. Former contributor to MarketWatch and ValueWalk.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.