The Hormuz Strait Is Setting Oil Prices, Not the Headlines
For weeks the loudest stories were Trump’s China accusations, the failed SpaceX Starship test, and Europe pressing China on the yuan. None of it moved oil. What did move oil was Iran’s largest retaliatory strikes since the US-Iran truce collapsed, and that is when Hormuz Strait oil prices took over the market’s real focus.
WTI is back to $82.49, Brent to $88.10, both above pre-conflict levels from February 28. The report points readers to a live Strait of Hormuz ship tracker, because counting tankers through the strait reads oil supply faster than any headline.
Oil feeds straight into inflation data (PCE, CPI, PPI) and eventually the Fed’s rate decision, even though nothing changes at the July 30 meeting itself. That connection matters this week, with GOOG reporting Tuesday and TSLA Wednesday, into a market already at a heavy top, where VGT traces a textbook descending triangle and SMH is forming a head and shoulders.
Underneath, the warning. Gold slipped to $4,015 and still is not acting like a safe haven, meaning money has not actually left stocks despite two wars running at once. Korea’s market is already down 20% from its high, a technical bear market built on Samsung and SK Hynix ETFs that make up half the KOSPI index.
Watch the tankers in the Strait this week. They will signal where oil, and rates, are headed before any speech does.
Full report available via the download button below. Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
US Stock Express 20260720 first hand news UNH VGT SMA SOXX
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.