UK is the first country that come to an agreement with US in tariff talk in the period of 90 days. When the market is thinking whether the second one is Japan or India, a sudden news disclosed it is China which is out of expectation.
China and US came to an temporary agreement of ceasefire in the tariff war. Both sides are quite emotional in who is kneeing down first and overwritten the actual tariff. When both sides cut 115%, is it a deal of reciprocal tariff?
US tariff against China is 30%, but China against US is just 10%. But including the existing tariff US levying upon China is 20% makes a total of 50%. After 90 days will raise up 30% more which makes a total of 80%. Please remember last Thursday, before the Swiss Talk begins, Trump said that he could lower tariff to 80%. However, what would happen 90 days later? The policies of Trump need to be up-date, up-hour, up-minute and up-second. The 50% redline is the level that retailers like Walmart could accept. They pushed Trump several times and fought for these level.
Anyway, US requested for opening of market, social media and banks of US could not enter China for several decades, but China can enter US and have no idea to change now. In the 2018 Sino-US Trade Agreement, China only fulfilled 58% of it, now the prerequisite is to fully fulfil it. Even fulfilled 7 years later, is it a winning? Anyway, both sides considered they have won and the other side had already kneed down.
One more point, on April 7th (Mon), Trump told people to buy stocks and several hours later he released good news on his Truth Social and turned the market from bottom to rocketing up. On May 8th (Thu), before the Swiss talk, Trump also told people to buy stocks, and now the market turned from bear to bull. He himself would not involve in stock trading directly, but how about his family?
So who is the actual winner? Well done, Sir!