Trump Calls Back the Bombers: Two-Week Iran Ceasefire Begins
With 90 minutes to spare before the US deadline to strike Iran, Donald Trump was in the White House Situation Room watching B-1B and B-2 heavy bombers already airborne toward their targets. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif intervened, urging a two-week ceasefire. Trump confirmed both sides must hold, and the bombers were recalled.
The ceasefire carries a significant concession: Trump agreed to allow Iran to collect passing fees from commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This directly breaches the UN High Sea Convention, which prohibits any nation from charging fees in international waterways. The fee structure, and the share going to the US and to Arab nations that sustained Iranian attacks, remains to be negotiated in the coming fortnight.
Iran declared victory, pointing to the US announcing the ceasefire first and to Hormuz remaining under their leverage. But the key issues, enriched uranium capacity and long-range missiles, were left off the table entirely. Iran cannot admit its nuclear infrastructure was crippled by last year’s Midnight Hammer Operation without losing face, and cannot claim nuclear readiness without triggering a renewed US strike.
The Market Does Not Wait for Two Weeks
Investors asking what happens after two weeks are already getting their answer. Markets responded bullishly before negotiations even began. Blue-chip stocks gapped up sharply. Trump is criticized either way: as a coward for backing down, or as a warmonger for pressing on. The market does not care about the political framing. It sees a pause in the worst-case scenario, and it is pricing that in.
The S&P 500 broke below its 250-SMA, technically a selling signal. But what governs the market now is not technical data, it is the situation in the Middle East. Both sides can declare victory at any moment, and both have. NVDA has already jumped from below all five major moving averages to above them in a single move. The technical picture is secondary.
GOOG Breaks Head and Shoulders Neckline: Quantum Is the New Pit
GOOG broke the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern, the most reliable of all chart formations. Ordinarily this confirms a bearish reversal. But Daniel Yue is recommending investors buy GOOG as a Quantum Computer play despite the large gap up. Quantum is a new concept sector, early enough that entry remains worthwhile even after the jump. Space industry stocks, highlighted for over a year, are now a little late. Moon-related stocks are at the same stage. Quantum remains the freshest opportunity in the current cycle.
Crypto, Oil, and the Fear and Greed Buying Window
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 30, fear territory. One week ago it was at 13. The recommended buying strategy remains dividing purchases into three tranches, entering at 15, 10, and 5. There is no need to wait for extreme readings near 2 or 3, as rebounds can begin at 15, as seen on Liberation Day last year.
Crypto deserves attention as a defensive position. Bitcoin has historically shown a reverse trend to the three major indexes, functioning as an anti-falling hedge. Cathie Wood stated publicly that 2026 is the year for crypto. Bitcoin’s falling trend stopped in Q1, even without a rising trend forming. For investors concerned that index valuations remain elevated, crypto-related stocks offer a different risk profile.
Oil remains elevated: WTI at $95.56 and Brent at $95.08. IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh warned that even after Hormuz reopens, aviation fuel supply and prices will take months to normalize. The IMF is preparing to cut its global economic growth forecast due to the Iran war’s impact. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson acknowledged elevated uncertainty from rising energy prices and Middle East conflict, while maintaining the current policy stance as appropriate.
What Investors Should Do Now
- S&P 500 below 250-SMA — a technical selling signal that Daniel Yue reads as a treasure-hunting opportunity, not a reason to flee
- GOOG and Quantum stocks — still worth entering despite the gap up; Quantum is the newest concept in the current cycle, see GOOG deep dive and Quantum overview
- Fear and Greed at 30 — divide buying into three tranches at 15, 10, and 5; see Fear and Greed strategy
- Crypto as defensive hedge — Bitcoin and crypto stocks move counter to the indexes; suitable for investors wary of index height
- Oil at $95 — WTI and Brent remain high; aviation fuel disruption continues; monitor economic indicators for IMF growth forecast revisions
Key Takeaway: The two-week Iran ceasefire is not a resolution, but it is enough for markets to gap up and for investors to start treasure hunting in Quantum, Crypto, and S&P names while the Fear and Greed Index is still in fear territory.
Related reading: Iran Crisis and the Market · TACO Trade · Quantum Computer Stocks · Fear and Greed Index Strategy
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.