Investors should know that the USS Tripoli (LHA7) has arrived in the Middle East, but they will stay for 14 days only. Does it mean the military action will be over or victory can come in 14 days? No! No! No! For it will face a very serious fighting that the munition and ammunition will be used up in a fortnight. Therefore, the USS Boxer (KHD4) will arrive in 14 days to replace it. That means the military action will at least cover 4 weeks.
They will launch out a Mission Impossible! That is the Delta Force is responsible for finding the enriched uranium and carrying them out. Of course, they will bring along the expertise to ensure the materials they are going to find is really the 450kg enriched uranium they want to develop atomic bombs. First of all, they have to have precise intelligence and know the site. Inside the site, they have several levels of underground tunnels like an octopus, each level has several function rooms. Even an expert has to spend some time to detect whether they are fake products to divert attention or real enriched uranium. Iran is not foolish at all, they would not put all eggs in one basket, they would separate and store up in different places. Above all, they must have some fake products and some real products, so it is not easy to clear them all at once.
Last year, the Midnight Hammer Operation did really destroy the enriched uranium nuclear plant, but now they have been restored within one year. It proved just by GPU-57 Bunker Buster Bomb of 30,000 pounds is no use at all. Only can make them delay their plan of atomic bombs and cannot stop it. Therefore, this time what they need is Delta Force with atomic specialists following them to find out all enriched uranium.
Iran threatens to block the Hormuz Strait completely; it is not so hard for them due to the unique geographical situation. Even over 90% of their military power is destroyed, but a single soldier can launch a drone attack to commercial ships. It is quite easy for Iran to cause disturbance so as to push up the price of oil. Donald Trump issued an ultimatum; the focus of the market is not who can win the war, the US should surely win in terms of military power. What the market really cares about is the price of petroleum!
As said before, 4 middlemen are transmitting their messages, that is Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, but face to face talking of US and Iran is essential. After World War II, the High Sea Convention stated all important channels belong to the general public and no other countries. All countries have the right to keep it free and safe for passing. Or else it will go back to Jungle Law of World War I or World War III already started.
Those aggressive buyers who believe the US can use their invincible force with high technology power to press down Iran, can buy in dip now. This is a chance for another golden pit. Those that have clear evaluation would know the war should carry on for at least 4 weeks, and should wait for a further dip to buy. Most people believe they are calm enough to be in the middle of two extremes. They can watch one simple thing, that is how many super tankers of 200,000 to 500,000 tons can pass the Hormuz Strait day by day. Those who have a market diary will be in a favourable condition.
Iran is split into 2 sectors, IRGC is hawkish and the government force is dovish, just see who can turn up in the peace talk. They must be responsible to their own people and have a firm stand in the talk. Thus, when the US is in an unfavourable situation, World War III is not far away.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.