The Market’s Eyes Turn Back to PCE
For months the only story was AI. The Magnificent Seven led, NASDAQ ran, and every dip was a buying chance. That has shifted. Attention has swung back to inflation, and specifically to PCE inflation, the gauge the Federal Reserve actually targets at 2%, not the CPI most headlines quote.
You could see the turn in the money. Last week US equity funds saw their first outflow since March, and technology funds alone lost a record $9.3 billion. The cash did not leave the market, it rotated. While AI names cooled, healthcare and pharmaceuticals quietly climbed: Eli Lilly jumped 7% in a single day, with Johnson & Johnson, UNH, and AbbVie firming beside it.
Here is why the two are linked. Healthcare is 17% of PCE versus only 9% of CPI, so as an aging population spends more on staying well, the Fed’s preferred number feels it first. The next PCE print lands July 30, and money is already leaning into the theme before the data arrives.
The warning sits in the chart. NASDAQ has formed a descending triangle, the Seven all look tired, and that record outflow may be the first crack rather than a one-week blip.
The focus of the market today: watch PCE on July 30, and follow the quiet rotation into health.
Full report available via the download button below. Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
US Stock Express 20260629 life expectancy Fear UP and down
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.