Fear & Greed at 71: The Highest Since Liberation Day 2025, But Watch the Gaps
The Fear & Greed Index opened the week at 71, crossing into Extreme Greed territory. To put that number in context for anyone keeping a market diary: this is the highest reading since the rebound of Liberation Day on April 7, 2025. It is higher than during the 12-day war, higher than during Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, and higher than at any point during Operation Epic Fury. The market has made a decisive judgment about the Iran conflict: it is over in sentiment, regardless of what the negotiating table produces.
There is one technical warning that investors should not ignore. VOO closed at 651.475 and QQQ have both produced two upward jumping gaps in the recent rally. Chart patterns teach that gaps tend to refill. The longer and steeper the gap, the more likely a pullback to close it. DIA is more stable, with a smaller gap-fill risk — its 250-SMA at 460.211 is well below its current price of 493.665, confirming structural support, but the gap risk on NASDAQ and S&P 500 ETFs is real. What is happening in the Middle East is one point. What the market is thinking is another. Right now it is thinking forward, not backward.
Five Parties, Not Two: Why Iran Talks Will Keep Zigzagging
Weekend noise from the IRGC threatening again to close the Hormuz Strait rattled some investors. Understanding why this keeps happening requires understanding that this is not a two-party negotiation between the US and Iran. There are five parties, each with conflicting interests and none with full control.
Party one is the IRGC, fully hawkish, collecting Hormuz passing fees into their own pockets and feeding on patriotic sentiment. Party two is Iran’s civil government, dovish and economically desperate — on the edge of being unable to pay its public servants. Any compromise they make with the US risks being labelled treason by the IRGC, who have enough power to pull them down. Party three is Iran’s formal military, holding the heavy weapons and long-range missiles, and determined to preserve enriched uranium as their strategic shield. Party four is the US, which needs a deal before the midterm elections. Party five is Israel, the most hawkish of all, facing an existential threat: Iran has repeatedly threatened to wipe it from the map, and Israel will not accept any outcome that leaves Iran’s nuclear capability intact.
All five want the war to end. None will accept terms that are not in their favor. That is why every ceasefire signal is followed by a new threat. Keep calm and carry on. Patience and two-handed preparation remain the investor’s framework.
Rare Earth: The Next Crisis After Oil
Once the Middle East petroleum question settles, the market will rotate its attention to the next strategic resource conflict: rare earth. USA Rare Earth (USAR) surged +14% on Monday after announcing a $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazilian rare earth miner Serra Verde, creating a multinational operation spanning eight facilities across Brazil, the US, France, and the UK. The deal covers the full chain: mining, processing, separation, metallization, and magnetic material manufacturing. USAR at $22.75 is well above its 250-SMA of $16.244, confirming the uptrend.
The signal is clear. If Trump meets Xi to negotiate a US-China framework, rare earth is China’s primary leverage point. The time to research this sector is before the crisis, not after. Stocks to watch: MP, LYC, UUUU, NB, ARRNF, ARAAF, HAS, LIN, LNR, NTU. Related ETFs: REMX, REEX, BATT, KARS. See the full rare earth stocks and ETFs breakdown for entry frameworks.
MRVL Surges on Google AI Chip Deal, MSTR Buys $2.54B in Bitcoin
Marvell Technology (MRVL) added +4.44% to close at $145.885 after reports emerged that Google is in advanced talks to develop two new AI chips with the company: a memory processing unit to complement Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), and a new TPU specifically designed to run AI models more efficiently. MRVL is trading well above all its moving averages, with its 250-SMA at $80.607 far below the current price. Keep an eye on GOOG and MRVL as an AI semiconductor pair. The battle of AI is now being fought at the chip architecture level, not just the model level.
Strategy (MSTR) spent $2.54 billion on Bitcoin purchases in the past week, its largest single-week buy since November 2024. Bitcoin and MSTR remain correlated plays on institutional crypto accumulation. Iran’s Parliament Speaker claimed Iran “achieved a victory on the battlefield” and agreed to a temporary ceasefire only because its demands were met — a face-saving narrative that signals the talks are far from over and domestic political pressure inside Iran remains intense.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Fear & Greed at 71 (Extreme Greed) — the highest since Liberation Day 2025; this level historically precedes short-term consolidation; the two jumping gaps on VOO and QQQ could refill before the next leg higher
- Rare earth sector: research now — USAR +14% is the opening signal; MP, LYC, REMX are the liquid entry points; do your research before the crisis forces the trade
- MRVL and GOOG — the Google-Marvell AI chip partnership is a high-conviction semiconductor play; MRVL above all SMAs with strong momentum
- DIA over QQQ and VOO for gap-risk management — DIA’s gap-fill risk is lower; for investors who want market exposure with less technical overhang, DIA is the safer ETF choice at this level
- Iran: 5-party complexity means more zigzags — two-handed preparation remains correct; peace removes the war premium, escalation benefits motor industry and defense names
Key Takeaway: Fear & Greed at 71 is the highest reading since Liberation Day 2025. The market has looked past Iran. The next crisis to position for is rare earth. Research MP, LYC, REMX, and USAR before the Trump-Xi meeting forces the trade.
Related reading: Rare Earth Warfare · Rare Earth Stocks and ETFs · Battle of AI · Peace Talk, Not Ceasefire Talk · MSTR and Crypto
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.