Since Joe Biden levied sanction of chips on Russia and China, there had been a lot of runaway chips. For Russia, they just dismantle chips from household appliance like refrigerator and rice cooker can change them into military usage. But for China, imports are found through the 3rd, 4th or 5th countries and now US has to tighten the sanction of ships and secondary tariff will be levied to those countries that re-export chips to China. Original exporter like Nvidia and TSMC will have to explain the situation.
The Deep Seek of China said they only used several hundred chips but later on found 60,000 chips, some of them are legal like A800, H800 and H20, but some are illegal like A100. Of course Jensen Huang said he sold all chips according to the law, but some other countries like Singapore they are legal to sell any chips imported from any country and re-export to any country. Now US are tracing that some countries had imported large amount which is more than what they need. Jensen Huang paid an entrance fee of US$1 million in Mar-A-Lago party and talked to Trump that he wished sell of H20 to China, the result is neither negative nor positive, it can sell only after getting approval from him every time, which is practically a negative outcome.
Jensen at once flied to China to ask what specification they need, and he would specially manufacturer a new kind of product which is under the law of US and can be sell to China. It is still under negotiation. But for TSMC, their chips are found in the mobile of Huawei, of course TSMC said they are re-exported to them indirectly and TSMC are acting under the law all the way. Anyway, they are now told to have the responsibility to track and trace who is the ultimate end-user. Now, they are facing a penalty of one billion US dollar. This amount is not so great when in comparison with their business and if it really in link of US national security. Too cheap indeed!
However, in term of stock price, it is no good for NVDA and TSM.