The Space Index V-Shape: From 1,859 to 2,116 in One Week
The S-Network Space Index jumped from 1,859.05 last week to 2,116.79 this week. That is a 14% move in an index tracking the global space economy, and it happened while the broader market was still absorbing geopolitical noise. The S-Network Space Index (ticker: SPACE) is a capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted benchmark covering companies that derive material revenue from space-related businesses. Its top ten constituents represent $173 billion in combined market cap and 48% of index weight, anchored by Garmin ($44.7bn), EchoStar ($18.4bn), Rocket Lab ($36.4bn), and AST SpaceMobile ($24.3bn).
RKLB and ASTS both surged sharply in prior sessions and are now pulling back through a Fibonacci adjustment. That kind of retracement in names with long-term structural tailwinds is precisely what creates a buying window. Both stocks have their lows above the 250-SMA, and their recent highs have broken above all five major average lines. ARKX, the ARK Space and Defense Innovation ETF, shows the same structure. History does not lie: golden pits appeared in April 2025, and the same setup is visible in April 2026.
Who Needs Peace More? Reading the Hormuz Negotiation Correctly
The peace talks are happening in Pakistan because both sides are exhausted. The question investors should ask is not whether peace is coming, but who needs it more. The side that needs peace less is operating with a tailwind. The side that needs it more is negotiating from a headwind. Both sides are publicly claiming full control of the situation, which is itself a signal that neither truly is.
US destroyers are currently sweeping naval mines and passing through the Strait of Hormuz. China is reported to have supplied Iran with shoulder-launched anti-missile systems capable of targeting the F-15, and Iran retains access to supersonic missiles from Russia and China. The Strait will return to normal operation. That is explicitly what is being negotiated. What remains unresolved is the enriched uranium question: civil nuclear use requires enrichment at 10%, but Iran is currently at 60%. Iran also continues to support Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. These are the real sticking points, not the passing fee structure.
The US will not provide direct war compensation. What it will accept is Iran collecting a passing fee on commercial ships, provided the US and allied Middle Eastern nations receive a considerable share. That framework is agreed in principle. Investors do not need to pick a political winner. They need to be positioned on the right side of the trade.
AI Cuts 60,000 Jobs in March. The Space Industry Is Hiring.
In March 2026 alone, 60,000 jobs were replaced by AI automation. That number is accelerating. At Trump’s inauguration, it was stated publicly that 41% of all jobs will be eliminated by AI before 2030. That is not a distant projection. It is the trajectory already underway.
The space economy is moving in the opposite direction. The Apollo programme of 1969 employed 400,000 people at its peak. The current phase of space development, targeting permanent infrastructure on the Moon and Mars over the next 20 years, is building a comparable employment base, both inside the industry and across downstream suppliers. While every other major sector is cutting headcount, space is adding it. That distinction matters equally for investors and for anyone thinking about where the next decade of careers is being built.
When the Iran conflict ends and the market pivots back to its underlying themes, AI will return to the centre of attention. Not to debate whether it is a bubble, but to position for the displacement it is already causing and the sectors that benefit from the capital it generates.
Golden Pit, V-Shape Rebound, and What the 250-SMA Is Telling You
The V-shape rebound is the hardest pattern to forecast precisely because it shows no warning signs. It emerges during a sustained fall, when the market becomes so oversold that global capital has nowhere else to go. The US stock market is the global safe haven. When it falls, every other market falls with it. That capital, looking for the fastest path to recovery, returns to Wall Street. The result is a sharp vertical rebound with no base-building phase.
The golden pit of 2025 taught investors exactly this lesson. April 2026 is showing the same setup. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 2.31% to close at 8,889.83, a sign that institutional money is rotating back into growth names. On the 250-SMA, the rule is straightforward: the three major indexes spend most of their time above this level. When they penetrate below it, that is not a sell signal. It is the buy signal. RKLB, ASTS, ARKX, and the S&P 500 itself are all now back above all five major moving averages.
Fear & Greed sits at 38, still in fear territory. One week ago it was 23. One month ago it was 20. One year ago it was 5. Each of those lows was followed by recovery. The window has not closed.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Space stocks on Fibonacci pullback — RKLB and ASTS are retracing after sharp moves; lows remain above the 250-SMA, highs above all five major lines; ARKX offers ETF-level access to the same thesis
- 250-SMA as the buy signal — when the S&P penetrates below the year line, it is the entry, not the exit; the most consistent timing tool across the three major indexes
- Fear & Greed at 38 — still fear territory; the move from 23 last week confirms the direction; the window is narrowing but not closed
- Oil post-war trajectory — after full production resumes including Venezuela, oil is forecast to return to the February 28 level of $67; that move will be swift; position energy exposure accordingly
- AI displacement vs space jobs — 60,000 jobs cut by AI in March alone; 41% of all jobs at risk by 2030; space is the only major sector adding employment at scale; both the investment thesis and the career thesis point the same direction
Key Takeaway: The Space Index jumped 14% in one week, RKLB and ASTS are pulling back through a Fibonacci retracement with the 250-SMA intact, and April 2026 is presenting the same golden pit that April 2025 rewarded. The V-shape rebound has no warning signs. The question is whether you are positioned before or after it completes.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.