WTI Ceiling @ $90 - iHandbook
WTI Ceiling @ $90

WTI Ceiling @ $90

Author: Daniel Yue
Date: 11.03.2026

Donald Trump said that he might use the US navy to escort the tankers to pass through the Hormuz Strait, but why no action yet? Perhaps he is waiting for USS George Bush (CVN-77) to cross the Atlantic and enter into Mediterranean Sea. USS Gerald Ford (CVN-78) has already passed through the Suez Canal and is going to meet the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) outside the Persian Gulf. The French FS Charles De Gaulle (R91), is heading to Hormuz Strait to join them. There are only 12 nuclear aircraft carriers in the world, the US owns 11 and France owns 1.

 

The US has 11 heavy aircraft carriers up to 100,000 tons. They also have another 11 light aircraft carriers known as amphibious assault ships and the tonnage is just about half of the above. In order to keep the condition running at ceiling all the time, there is always one heavy aircraft carrier in dockyard for great maintenance of nearly one year’s time. Two to three more for annual maintenance of one to two months. But at least 7 are on the sea and ready to deploy elsewhere. So, a gathering of 3 carrier strike groups is a great gathering indeed. In order to avoid the nostalgia of servicemen, a standard deployment is 3 months only. When over this period, another strike group will come across to take up the task so as to set them free after 3 months. Therefore, no matter the physical hardware or psychological state of the navy, they are always at their culmination. This is also the secret of victory.

 

The price of WTI on Monday is really like a roller coaster. It went up to the highest point of $120 and came down to close at $94. On Wednesday it is at $84.62. The G7 Finance Minister had a video conference, but failed to come to a compromise of releasing strategic oil. That is, they have special reserve oil for war or special cases like now. But only Japan is released, others still have to observe more. However, the market has already prepared well for the intervention. So, the price of oil went down and $90 is treated as ceiling.

 

Before the beginning of the war, what people worried most was the duration, how long it would take to have the decapitation of Khamenei, maybe weeks, months or even years. The killing of Bin Laden in the 9/11 attack took 10 years. This is what the market worried most about. However, this time, the first strike is the decapitation of Khamenei, that means all the battles after this can be considered as aftermath. It has already been half done or at least 51% done on the first day. Like the furnishing of a new shop, on opening day the depreciation should be 50% of the furnishing expenditure in order to reflect the actual asset.

 

Donald Trump said the war is very complete, Iran has no capability of fighting back. It is true, but they need not to fight back, they can give disturbance to tankers, that’s all they want.

 

Facing the blockade of Hormuz Strait, Trump released some sanctions on oil, that is, India can buy oil from Russia. What is he waiting for, may be more frigates to come to make a wall of human shield to escort tankers to go through. It is not the end. Trump still wants to destroy the condensed uranium of 440 kg in Iran so as not to let them produce nuclear bombs. Therefore, the actual fighting may take several months and not just 4 to 5 weeks as said.

 

The most important thing is to make sure tankers can pass the Hormuz Strait, even under escort. They will have their first try soon. Anyway, before that oil price will be under $90, and if successful, oil price will go further down, but if several kamikaze drones attack tankers and blaze up fireballs like Red Bloody Moon, it will go back to $120.

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