Markets Rise as Fear & Greed Hits 69: The Bull Ignores Everything
The Fear & Greed Index reads 69, Greed, up from 62 at the previous close and 63 one week ago. One month ago it was 23, Extreme Fear. One year ago it was 53, Neutral. The speed of this reversal is the story. All three major indexes continue rising with the 10-SMA as support. The hierarchy is clear: QQQ runs stronger than NASDAQ, NASDAQ stronger than S&P, S&P stronger than DJIA. This is a textbook bull market configuration. The 250-SMA remains well below price on all four indexes, confirming the uptrend has structural support.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, citing soaring fuel prices and Middle East instability. That move matters: it puts pressure on other central banks globally, and Bloomberg’s swap-implied projections now show a possible Fed rate hike in 2027. For context on the interest rate cycle and its market implications, the dynamics at play here connect directly to the broader inflation story.
World Observation: Buffett’s Warning and the Casino Market
After Trump launched Project Freedom, both sides reopened fire. The battle of narratives is as intense as the battle itself. Trump said two ships passed the Strait safely. Iran denied it, fired missiles at a US warship, and claimed the Americans were driven back. The US said no such thing happened and sunk six Iranian boats for laying mines. Maersk confirmed one of its ships, escorted by US forces, did pass through the Strait of Hormuz. When war breaks out, as Daniel Yue wrote, the first casualty is truth.
Oil is now nearly double what it was at the start of the war in late February. That price feeds directly into inflation pressures, as Australia’s rate hike demonstrates. A new constitutional tension is emerging in Washington: does the ceasefire count as the war being over, or is the 60-day wartime limit still running? The White House says one thing. Congress says another. That conflict will matter for what Trump can legally do next.
Against this backdrop, Warren Buffett’s warning lands with weight. Berkshire Hathaway now holds approximately $400 billion in cash, a record representing roughly one-third of its total portfolio and investment base. In early November that ratio was 31%. By May 2026 it is 33%. Buffett described the current market as a casino, investors chasing momentum rather than value, gambling rather than investing. He noted that Berkshire sees no attractive large-scale deals at current valuations and is unwilling to chase overpriced assets. Importantly, the current CEO of Berkshire is Greg Abel. Buffett now sits as advisor, not operator. The market must decide whether Abel will deploy that $400 billion or hold it as long as Buffett would have.
Cathy Wood vs Warren Buffett: ARK Series Rockets While BRK.B Falls
The contrast between the God and Goddess of stocks has never been sharper. When Buffett announced his retirement in May 2025, BRK.B began to fall. The market was simultaneously rebounding from the Liberation Day low of April 7th and every other stock was rising, but BRK.B went down because the market believed no one could replace Buffett. BRK.B is now at 465.53, down on the day.
Meanwhile, Cathy Wood’s ARK series has continued to rise. ARKQ covers autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI hardware. ARKW targets next-generation internet and digital platforms. ARKF focuses on fintech, blockchain, and payment infrastructure. ARKX covers space exploration and defense. All four carry expense ratios of approximately 0.75%. For a full breakdown of ETF classifications and how to choose between them, the guide covers the key differences.
Cathy Wood also sold PLTR at $180. It subsequently rose to $190 before falling to $130. Her timing call was imperfect but the directional read was sound. She has also stated that 2026 is the year for Bitcoin, which is now back above $80,000, recovering from its earlier correction. That call is on track.
Global Round-Up: KOSPI Record, Alphabet Bond, Iran Strikes
South Korea’s KOSPI closed at 6,936, up 338 points, a 64.6% gain year to date. It has surpassed $4.04 trillion in market capitalisation, overtaking the UK to become the world’s 8th largest stock market. Global funds are accelerating their shift from traditional financial and energy markets into Asian markets, particularly South Korea and Taiwan, which hold strategic positions in the AI hardware supply chain.
Alphabet issued its largest-ever euro-denominated bond, raising at least 9 billion euros ($10.5 billion) to fund AI development. The bond attracted strong demand. The message: the largest technology companies are financing AI infrastructure at scale through debt, not just retained earnings.
US military officials confirmed the destruction of six Iranian ships and interception of multiple missiles during the ceasefire period. Iran has now attacked US forces more than 10 times during the ceasefire, though a senior US general stated the attacks remain below the threshold for restarting full combat. The Iran crisis is not resolved. It is managed. Those are different things, and the market is treating them as the same. For oil implications, see Mind the Oil Price.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Respect Buffett’s signal without copying it: Berkshire hoarding 33% cash at record highs is a caution flag, not a sell signal. History shows Berkshire often holds cash too long before deploying it at market lows. Watch the level, not the action.
- ARK series as a momentum play: ARKQ, ARKW, ARKF, and ARKX are rising while BRK.B falls. If you have risk appetite and believe in the AI, space, and fintech cycle, the ARK ETFs offer concentrated exposure. Understand the volatility before entering.
- Bitcoin back above $80,000: Cathy Wood’s 2026 Bitcoin thesis is playing out. If you have existing crypto exposure, hold. If you are entering now, position size carefully given the range between $80,000 and the prior high near $130,000.
- KOSPI and Nikkei signal Asia is the next leg: Global fund flows into South Korea and Taiwan are structural, not speculative. AI hardware supply chain positioning is driving this. Consider ETF exposure to Asian markets as a complement to US tech holdings.
- Australia’s rate hike is the canary: The Reserve Bank citing Middle East instability as an inflation driver is a direct line between Hormuz and your interest rate environment. Watch whether other central banks follow. A rate hike cycle restarting in 2027 changes the entire bull market calculus.
Key Takeaway: Buffett sits on $400 billion in cash and calls it a casino. The market rises anyway. Both can be right simultaneously, until one of them isn’t.
Related reading: Iran Crisis · Bitcoin · Interest Rate Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.