Berkshire’s $397 Billion Message
Berkshire Hathaway’s Q1 2026 filing reveals a portfolio of approximately $263 billion across 29 holdings, with Apple at 22%, American Express at 17%, and Coca-Cola at 12% making up over half the value. The number that matters most is not in the stock list. It is the cash position: $397.38 billion, a record high.
Berkshire has been a net seller of US equities for 14 consecutive quarters, with cumulative net sales exceeding $200 billion. The message from management is clear. They see current valuations as expensive and are preserving liquidity until better opportunities arrive. When the largest and most respected value portfolio in the world holds more cash than the GDP of many nations, it is not a coincidence. It is a judgment.
Warren Buffett has retired. He was present at the annual meeting but sat at a corner of the stage. The CEO is now Greg Abel. The most important strategic shift: Buffett seldom concentrated on AI stocks. Abel is filling that gap.
Greg Abel’s New Bets: GOOG and AMZN
In Q1 2026, Berkshire’s biggest moves were into Alphabet and Amazon. Alphabet was increased by 204%, New York Times by 199%, and Lennar by 43%. New positions were opened in Delta Air Lines ($2.65 billion), Alphabet Class C ($1 billion), and Macy’s ($55 million). Berkshire exited 16 stocks entirely, including Visa, Mastercard, UnitedHealth, Domino’s, and Amazon at the portfolio level.
GOOG and AMZN are now the most purchased stocks by institutional buyers in Q1 2026. Micron Technology comes third. This is not a coincidence. Institutional consensus has converged on these two names as the primary AI infrastructure beneficiaries after NVDA.
The key discipline: do not chase at current prices. GOOG is at $385 and pulling back. The ideal buying level on adjustment is the jumping gap at $355. AMZN is at $259 and pulling back. The ideal level is $233. In Chinese market philosophy this is called the turning back of a lady: do not run after her, wait for her to turn back. That is the best entry point.
Iran Peace: The Closest It Has Been
Daniel Yue forecast in the March 16, 2026 edition that the Iran war would end between June 21 and August 12. That window is now approaching.
The latest terms through Pakistani mediation show both sides are negotiating a 14-point framework memorandum of understanding. Iran’s demands: immediate end to hostilities, recognition of nuclear enrichment rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, release of frozen assets, and Hormuz sovereignty with compensation. The US demands: 12 to 20 year nuclear suspension, full surrender of enriched uranium stockpiles, reopening of Hormuz for global shipping, and phased sanctions relief of 25% initially.
The gaps remain wide. But Washington has acknowledged positive developments and a possible framework deal. Both Trump and Iran’s foreign minister are sending mixed signals simultaneously, alternating between threats and optimism. That pattern is consistent with the final stages of negotiation, not a breakdown.
The market has already moved on from Hormuz. The peace deal, if it comes, will open the strait and collapse oil. That is the single largest deflationary catalyst available to the market right now.
Bond Yields at a 19-Year High
The US 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.16%, the highest level since 2007. Market participants are now watching 5.5%, a level not seen in 22 years. The US Treasury Department extended sanctions waivers for Russian oil already at sea for another 30 days, a measure to ease pressure on energy markets while Iran negotiations continue.
When long-dated interest rates reach these levels, equity valuations face structural compression. The economic indicator to watch is whether the 30-year breaks above 5.5% before an Iran deal materialises. If it does, the market will have to reprice. If an Iran deal arrives first, oil falls and the yield pressure eases.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Do not chase GOOG or AMZN at current levels — wait for adjustment to the jumping gap: GOOG at $355, AMZN at $233; the lady is still walking forward, do not run after her
- BRK.B cash is a caution signal — $397 billion in cash held by the most disciplined value manager in history means valuations are expensive; respect that signal even if you do not copy the portfolio
- Iran deal window: June 21 to August 12 — if a deal materialises, oil price collapses and the market gets a major deflationary catalyst; watch Pakistan-mediated talks for progress
- Bond yields at 5.16% — the 30-year has not been here since 2007; if it breaks 5.5%, equity valuations face real pressure; this is the number to monitor alongside the 10-SMA
- 10-SMA for S&P and NASDAQ, 20-SMA for DJIA — these remain the adjustment watersheds; jumping gaps and Fibonacci levels are the ideal re-entry points when those lines break
Key Takeaway: Berkshire holds $397 billion in cash and has sold equities for 14 straight quarters, Greg Abel is buying GOOG and AMZN for the AI era, Iran is the closest to a deal it has ever been, and the 30-year yield just hit a 19-year high: wait for the pullback, do not chase.
Related reading: GOOG Analysis · AMZN Analysis · Interest Rate Watch · Iran Crisis Archive · Wave Theory and Average Lines
Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
