Trump Says Talks Are Progressing. Iran Says They Have Not Begun.
Trump said peace talks are in good progress. Iran said talks have not yet begun. This is not necessarily a contradiction. Indirect talks through a middleman are still negotiation. Trump says he is speaking to someone at a higher level who holds actual power. Iran confirmed this by allowing 10 tankers to pass freely through the Hormuz Strait. That action, more than any statement, proved the negotiator holds real authority over the waterway.
Iran’s Passing Fee Bill: The Bigger Threat
Iran’s Congress passed a bill to levy US$2 million per ship transiting Hormuz. If this principle stands, every major waterway becomes a toll road: the English Channel, Baltic Sea, Mediterranean Sea, South China Sea. In the South China Sea alone, five nations claim sovereignty rights. The real dispute is no longer about 15 US points or 6 Iranian points. It is about whether international law survives. If it does not, the United Nations becomes ornamental.
Hell Fire Deadline: April 6
If talks fail by the deadline, Trump will launch Hell Fire. Marine Corps, Airborne Units, and Special Forces are ready. An invincible force needs firepower and the psychological state of its soldiers. USS Tripoli (LHA7) rotates out after 14 days for morale reasons, not supply. USS Boxer (LHD4) arrives fully loaded to replace it. If the US cannot keep Hormuz free, negotiations that have run since 2006 will simply continue for another 20 years. To what end?
Golden Pit Watch: April Window
Chance of negotiation success: 60%. Last year’s golden pit was April 7, 2025, the year-low. This April looks similar. The 3 major indexes are below the 250-SMA, historically a strong buying zone. No need to rush. Wait for the April 6 deadline first. Look beyond the war: Artemis II launches today and will run for decades. The war ends. The space economy does not.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Hormuz tanker count — track daily supertanker pass-throughs. That is the most reliable real-time signal
- Fear and Greed at 13 — Extreme Fear. Approaching the buy zone, not yet there
- WTI rising hammer — breaking upward. All 3 major indexes also rebounded on peace talk hope
- 250-SMA watch — indexes below it. Strong dip-buying zone. Wait for April 6 before committing
- Space stocks — position at the dip. Artemis II is a decades-long story regardless of war outcome
Key Takeaway: Peace talks at 60%, golden pit window opens around April 6, WTI printing a rising hammer. Watch the Hormuz tanker count daily. The market will tell you before any statement does.
Related reading: The Final Blow · Peace Talk, Not Ceasefire Talk · Mind the Oil Price · The Space Economy
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.