NVDA Hits $5 Trillion Again, TSLA Breaks Out: The Panic Buying Edition
The Fear & Greed Index reads 70, Greed, up from 27 one month ago and 54 one year ago. NASDAQ closed at 26,025.21, up 0.72%, with the 10-SMA providing clean support. NVDA has crossed $5 trillion in market capitalisation again at $213.44, extending its lead as the world’s most valuable company. GOOG follows at $4.763 trillion. The 250-SMA on NASDAQ remains well below price, confirming structural momentum.
The standout chart of the week belongs to TSLA. At 411.35, up 3.166%, TSLA has completed a Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern and broken above the neckline. For a full breakdown of how to read this chart pattern, it is one of the most reliable reversal signals in technical analysis. Daniel Yue notes that TSLA woke from hibernation precisely on the Start of Summer, May 5th. The TSLA thesis remains intact.
World Observation: Panic Buying and the Market Diary
Panic selling is the most feared scenario in markets. Panic buying, Daniel Yue argues, is equally dangerous, though it feels pleasant while it lasts. The atmosphere is optimistic. Keep calm and carry on.
The war history lesson matters here. In both the Gulf War of 1990 and the Iraq War of 2003, the Bush administrations spent roughly half a year moving 600,000 soldiers and naval forces across the Atlantic. During that preparation period, markets fell and gold rose. Uncertainty dominated. Peace talks started and stopped. Then, on the day open fire began, the uncertainty lifted. All three major indices rose together and gold fell. Major combat ended within three weeks. Victory was declared in weeks five or six.
Daniel Yue applied this framework to the Iran conflict before it began. War started on the morning of February 28, 2026. His call: if major fighting could not conclude within three weeks, the market would interpret that as a US defeat. Indexes fell until March 30 and formed the golden pit. Since that date, no matter the news, the market has moved in one direction only.
The market’s current reasoning is straightforward: the US economy can absorb several points of inflation in PCE and CPI and survive. Iran was already in hyperinflation before the war began. Iran’s economy collapses first. The US economy complains on Main Street but does not break. That asymmetry is why the Iran crisis has not derailed the bull market.
The practical tool for this environment is the market diary. Not a trading journal, not a portfolio tracker: a dated record of market signals over time. The Fear & Greed Index reading, the PHLX semiconductor level, the Space Index value, a note on the geopolitical context. Investors who keep this record are already in the upper half of the investing population. Those who do not will find it impossible to remember when AVGO entered the Top 20, or what the Fear & Greed Index was when they made their last major decision. The simplest market diary is the US Stock Express archive itself.
Reading Tomorrow’s Stars: The Top 20 Framework
AVGO now sits at $2.017 trillion, tightly chasing TSMC at $2.171 trillion. One year ago, AVGO was where MU and AMD are today: a new entrant in the Top 20, not yet taken seriously as a major position. MU is now at $766.73 billion. AMD at $685.21 billion, having moved up two spots. SK Hynix entered the Top 20 at $808 billion.
Exxon Mobil is ranked 20th at $599 billion and falling. Intel and Oracle have already been removed from the Top 20. The energy-to-technology rotation continues. India and China, despite having populations of 1.5 billion and 1.4 billion respectively, cannot produce a company in this list at current market structures. That absence is itself a data point about where capital is concentrating.
The framework Daniel Yue recommends: focus on the Top 10 for stability, but watch the new entrants to the Top 20 for tomorrow’s compounders. The space economy and AI semiconductor supply chain is where new entrants will come from. See the various ETFs guide for ways to capture the trend without picking individual names.
Global Round-Up: Oil Below $100, Asian Rally, India Chips, Fed Caution
Both Brent crude and WTI fell below $100 per barrel on optimism about a potential end to the Middle East conflict. Gold continues to rise on the same news. The divergence between falling oil and rising gold reflects two simultaneous market bets: that the conflict resolves, and that uncertainty persists long enough to keep safe havens bid. The Space Index reached 2,655.67 as of May 6, near-vertical in its trajectory from the 2024 base.
Asian equity markets rose across the board on Thursday: Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Wellington, Singapore, Taipei, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Manila all closed higher. The rotation of global capital toward Asian AI hardware supply chain names continues.
India approved two new semiconductor projects totalling $414 million overnight, accelerating its push to become a global electronics hub. India’s $414 million is a starting position, not a destination, but the direction of travel is clear.
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins expressed agreement with dissenting voices at last week’s monetary policy meeting who objected to language in the post-meeting statement suggesting the Fed would resume interest rate cuts. The Fed is not done with caution.
A Hantavirus outbreak was confirmed on the polar expedition cruise ship MV Hondius, with the WHO determining the first of three fatalities was infected before boarding. The ship departed Ushuaia, Argentina on April 1st.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Start a market diary today: Record the Fear & Greed Index reading, the PHLX level, and one line on the geopolitical context every week. This single habit separates investors who understand market cycles from those who react to them. See the Fear & Greed framework for context.
- TSLA’s Reverse Head and Shoulders is a confirmed breakout: At 411.35, TSLA has cleared its neckline. The chart pattern signal is bullish. This is not a speculative call: the pattern is complete and the break is clean.
- NVDA at $5.187 trillion remains the anchor: Do not chase. Do not exit. The NVDA thesis has not changed. It is the infrastructure layer of the next two decades.
- Watch the Top 20 new entrants: MU at $766B and AMD at $685B are today where AVGO was one year ago. SK Hynix at $808B. These are the compounders of the next cycle. The space economy and anti-aging supply chain will produce the next wave.
- Oil below $100 is a signal, not a resolution: Peace optimism drove this move. Trump’s threatened bombardment drove the previous spike. The oil futures market is trading sentiment, not settlement. Do not build a macro position on one day’s move.
Key Takeaway: The market has one answer to every piece of news right now: up. Keep a market diary, watch the new entrants to the Top 20, and remember that in both Gulf Wars the market rose the day the shooting started.
Related reading: TSLA · NVDA · Space Economy
Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.