Trump Flies to Beijing: The Double Winning Declaration Is Already Written
Donald Trump’s visit to China, scheduled for May 14-15, has been postponed four times in the past 16 months. When it finally happens, Daniel Yue’s World Observation delivers a precise forecast of the outcome: both sides will proclaim victory and neither will concede anything publicly. He calls this the Double Winning Declaration, and the market has already begun pricing it in.
The negotiating positions are clearly asymmetric. What the US needs most from China is the lifting of rare earth sanctions. Even with the combined efforts of Japan, Australia, and Ukraine, the US requires three years to stabilize the initial supply shortage and seven to ten years to achieve genuine independence. Rare earth is the foundational input for chip manufacturing, and without it the AI buildout faces a structural ceiling. What China wants most is the gradual lifting of technology sanctions, starting with a freeze on any new restrictions. The H200 chip from NVIDIA is one specific flashpoint. Taiwan arms sales remain the deepest political fault line: since 1979, the US has completed 140 arms sales to Taiwan.
Trump’s strength going into this meeting is his merchant instinct, not his military record. China will buy Boeing planes; BA stock has already moved. NVIDIA was in hibernation on chip exports and has woken up. The practical middle ground is commerce: bulk agricultural purchases, incremental tech concessions, symbolic gestures on Taiwan. Both sides go home claiming the win. China does not want Iran or Russia defeated. It only wants them as assistants, not leaders, and that framing shapes every calculation Xi brings to the table.
NACHO: The Market Has Given Up on Hormuz and Pivoted to Space
The latest market acronym is NACHO: Not A Chance Hormuz Opens. The Hormuz Strait blockade began as an unintended side effect of the war. Iran found it geographically effective. The US found anti-blocking equally effective. Both sides reached a deadlock. Over 1,000 commercial ships remain inside. Satellite images now show Kharg Island intentionally releasing oil into the sea from excess production, choosing environmental disaster over cutting output. The UN has no mechanism to intervene.
The market has stopped waiting. Smart money has already rotated. The SpaceX IPO is expected in summer 2026, and Daniel Yue projects its first-day market cap at $2 trillion, placing it immediately inside the global Top 10 by market capitalization. OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs are expected to follow. The PHLX semiconductor index is back at record highs. NVIDIA, TSLA, and Alphabet are positioning for space electricity competition. Goldman Sachs released its “Decoding the Agentic Economy” report this week, projecting explosive token demand growth and AI computing costs falling 60 to 70% annually. GPT-5 passed the Turing Test at AGI level. The space economy thesis Daniel Yue has been building since 2024 is now the central pillar of market confidence, not Hormuz resolution.
Space Stocks Surge: RKLB, ASTS, PL, and ARKX All Move Hard
The space sector delivered some of the week’s most dramatic individual moves. Rocket Lab (RKLB) closed at $105.47 on May 8, up 34.22%, supported by a $1.85 billion backlog and 21 successful launches in 2025. Its 250-SMA sits at $56.82, meaning the stock has nearly doubled from its long-term average line. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) gained 14.84%, closing at $75.05, with its 250-SMA at $66.93 confirming the uptrend. Planet Labs (PL) rose 10.78% to $39.04, with a $900 million backlog and EBITDA profitability achieved. The ARK Space and Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX) gained 4.54% to $34.34.
Daniel Yue first highlighted Mars landing stocks and the space industry in 2024. The March 30 golden pit was the inflection point: he asked AI to list space industry potential stocks that day, and the list included RKLB and PL. Investors who ran ahead of the market then have now seen those names more than double. The next catalyst in the sequence is the SpaceX IPO.
S&P 500: Rare Four-Year Double-Digit Streak With No 2026 Correction
Bloomberg data shows the S&P 500 is on track for a rare four-year consecutive run of double-digit annual gains: 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, 16% in 2025, and 20% annualized in 2026. The last time this happened was the dot-com bubble era from 1995 to 1999. Before that, the only comparable period was during World War II. Daniel Yue’s caution is direct: the S&P rose a lot in 2026 and has had no adjustment.
Military stocks tell a different story. LMT, NOC, and TRX dropped significantly, not because the Iranian conflict is ending, but because the US Achilles’ heel has been exposed: stealth missile stocks are nearly 50% depleted after just two months of conflict. Production cannot keep pace with consumption. The concern is not Iran alone. It is what happens if a second conflict opens in Asia or elsewhere simultaneously.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Understand NACHO before trading any Hormuz headline — the blockade is priced as permanent; chasing oil price moves on Strait news is a distraction from the space rotation already in progress
- Watch the May 14-15 summit for two specific signals — whether rare earth sanctions are softened even marginally and whether NVIDIA chip export restrictions are adjusted; BA is already reflecting the Boeing deal thesis
- Space stocks are no longer speculative — RKLB, ASTS, and PL are delivering revenue and backlog; the 250-SMA for each is well below current price; the SpaceX IPO at $2 trillion is the next major liquidity event for the entire sector
- S&P caution is warranted — Fear & Greed at 67 Greed, no correction in 2026, and a four-year streak matching the dot-com bubble era; maintain your market diary and review before adding at record levels
- Military stocks dropping is a warning, not an opportunity — LMT and NOC fell because US missile production cannot keep up with consumption after two months; this is a structural signal about US-Iran conflict duration risk, not a sector rotation buy
Key Takeaway: The market stopped waiting for Hormuz to open, coined NACHO, and started pricing the SpaceX $2 trillion IPO instead, which means the summer 2026 rally is built on the space economy thesis and the only thing that can interrupt it is what comes out of Beijing on May 14-15.
Related reading: Rare Earth Warfare · Iran Crisis · Mars Landing Stocks · Space Economy
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About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.