QQQ Holds as Markets Price In Resolution
QQQ closed at 675.91, up 0.261%, with NASDAQ continuing to lead the broader market. The Fear & Greed Index reads 66, firmly in Greed territory. One month ago it sat at 23, Extreme Fear. A year ago it was 38, Fear. That reversal in four weeks is sharp, and it tells you the market is pricing in resolution rather than escalation. Whether that confidence is earned depends entirely on what happens between Washington and Beijing this month.
The 250-SMA on QQQ remains well below the current price, a configuration that historically supports continued upward momentum. The trend is intact. The risk is political, not technical.
World Observation: Project Freedom and the Win-All-or-Nothing Gambit
The US launched “Project Freedom” to escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Two US-flagged vessels transited safely. Over 1,000 ships remain stranded inside the Gulf. Iran’s military has warned that any US warship entering the Strait constitutes a ceasefire violation, threatening a severe response.
Iran and the US are entering another round of peace talks. Iran’s 14-point proposal defers nuclear questions to a second stage, demands lifting all sanctions immediately, seeks war reparations, and insists on protecting its regional proxies including Hezbollah and Hamas. The US 10-point framework demands the dismantling of Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities, permanent halt to enrichment, and US military presence until compliance is verified. The comparative table across six key issues, timeline, nuclear program, Hormuz, sanctions, regional proxies, and missiles, rates five of six as severe clashes. A gap this wide does not close in one round of talks.
Daniel Yue’s read: the real story is not in the Strait and not in the 14 or 10 points. It is China. On April 24th, the US sanctioned 5 Chinese teapot refineries in northeast China, the processors of Iran’s heavy oil, 80% of which flows to China. The sanctions reach the entire downstream network: banking, insurance, transportation, and tankers, covering an estimated one million employment situations. China responded on May 2nd by activating its anti-sanction law for the first time since its establishment. From that moment, no foreign sanction carries legal effect inside China. Trump has placed his bet: WIN ALL OR NOTHING.
Trump’s planned visit to China, scheduled for May 14-15, has been delayed repeatedly. First by the tariff war, then by APEC, then by the Iranian War. If he arrives in Beijing unable to claim victory in Iran, he goes not as a winner but as a leader asking for help. The market has not fully priced what that looks like. For the broader tariff and dollar context, see Dollar Hegemony and Tariff War.
Watch Sanae Takaichi: Oil, Arms, and the Next Whirlwind
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held talks in Australia focused on the global oil supply shortage. Australia supplies coal and liquefied natural gas to Japan; Japan provides approximately 7% of Australia’s diesel fuel. Brent Oil futures dipped following the meeting, even as the headline price remains elevated at $110.94.
Daniel Yue has a longer call on Takaichi. She persuaded Japan’s parliament to amend constitutional law, opening Japan to selling arms to foreign countries, a market previously limited to the US, Russia, China, and the EU. Her conduct in every public setting, saluting flags, bowing to guards, signals a level of discipline and intention that does not belong to ordinary politicians. Daniel draws a line to Margaret Thatcher. The next chapter he flags: space industry. Keep watching. For prior oil analysis, see Mind the Oil Price.
Global Round-Up: EVs, Boeing, Berkshire, GPT-5
The global EV market recorded a 1% year-on-year decline in Q1 2026, its first contraction after years of rapid growth. China and the US markets fell hardest. European manufacturers are responding with new models as subsidy adjustments and oil price volatility reshape buyer behaviour.
Boeing returned to court on a civil lawsuit stemming from the Ethiopian 737 MAX crash, filed by the family of a US NGO employee who died in the accident. The litigation continues to shadow the company’s recovery narrative.
Berkshire Hathaway held its annual shareholders meeting over the weekend. Warren Buffett, officially retired at year-end 2025, was present and drew the crowd’s attention as expected. Berkshire holds a record $397 billion in cash as of Q1 2026. Buffett’s assessment: market gambling enthusiasm is at its peak and current valuations do not represent Berkshire’s ideal entry conditions. That signal from the most patient capital allocator in the market is worth filing.
OpenAI released GPT-5, which has passed the Turing Test at AGI, Artificial General Intelligence, level. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) rose 1.607% to $404.06 on the same day, confirming that AI hardware demand is structural, not speculative. Tempus AI (TEM) at $55.40 is Daniel Yue’s anti-aging call: in the next decade, anti-aging will replace AI as the defining investment theme. Position early.
What Investors Should Do Now
- Hold NASDAQ: QQQ at 675.91 with Fear & Greed at 66 signals momentum continues. The market has repriced from fear to greed in four weeks. Do not exit the trend on noise. See various ETFs for QQQ positioning context.
- Watch TEM for the decade ahead: Anti-aging as an investment theme is early-stage and underpriced. Tempus AI at $55.40 is the current entry point Daniel Yue is flagging. This is a multi-year thesis, not a trade.
- TSM validates AI is real: Taiwan Semiconductor at $404.06 rising on GPT-5 AGI news is the market confirming AI infrastructure demand is intact. The semiconductor cycle continues.
- Prepare for Trump-China volatility around May 14-15: Two positions are rational: positioned for a deal (risk-on, tech up), and positioned for breakdown (oil spikes, defensive sectors). Do not hold only one scenario. See How to Catch the Bottom for golden pit strategy.
- Brent at $110.94 keeps the oil floor elevated: The Hormuz blockade, Iran’s demands, and Japan’s energy diplomacy are structural pressures, not one-day events. Oil futures remain a live risk to global supply costs.
Key Takeaway: The Hormuz standoff is the visible crisis, but the real bet is US versus China: Trump has gone all in on Win All or Nothing, and the market has not priced what losing looks like.
Related reading: Iran Crisis · Tariff War · Mind the Oil Price Read previous US Stock Express editions here.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniel Yue has been an active investor since 1980, with experience spanning stocks, currencies, futures, metals, and bonds. A scholar of the Chicago School of Economics, he holds a Certificate with Distinction from Cambridge University and a degree in International Trading from National Taiwan University. He served as Chief Analyst for over 30 years and Chief Mentor at Sincere Finance. In 2017, he received an award from the University of Arizona for financial internship leadership.
The analysis and opinions expressed in this article are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.